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WPTC crop update as of 1 September 2023

05/09/2023 - WPTC , Sophie Colvine - 2023 Season
As of 1st September, the global world production estimate remains just over 42 million tonnes. The harvest is however below the half-way mark in many countries due to the delays and there is therefore a lot of uncertainties as to the final volumes which will be achieved in 2023.
The heat wave have affected yields in the summer season, but quality was ok. Temperatures are now back to normal and processing in small quantities as the crop is now transitioning to the late summer crop which will start mid-September. The transplanting for winter crop may be delayed 15 days to skip the heat wave in order to maintain complete blossom, as the expectations are positive for it. The situation is being assessed by field departments and the overall forecast will be reviewed in a few weeks.
To date about 80,000 tonnes have been processed, which is 50% of the forecast. Despite issues with late blight in late spring and fruit flies, overall yields are perhaps better than expected. Brix is about 5 and penalties 6%. Quality and yields are good. After a heat wave for 3- or 4-days last week, temperatures are now cooler than usual, especially in the south-east where it is also windy. No rain is forecast in the coming days. If September is good the 160,000 tonnes forecast should be achieved.
The crop is progressing well as the weather is very good. Field yields are very good and average brix of 5. In the south already 75% of the forecast has been processed, a bit lower than usual, and overall, 65% in the whole country. The forecast remains unchanged.
The plan is unchanged at 100,000 tonnes. The weather changed last week, and hot days arrived. Harvesting is going well with average yields and good Brix. As of today, 1/3 of the total quantity has been processed.
Crop harvesting is still going in northern parts of Iran and factories are working in full capacity. The weather is much better with temperatures around 18-20 degree. 
North – As of 20 August a total of 1.35 million tonnes have been processed which is 42% of contracts. Average brix is 4.94 and penalties at 4.5% with the payment index at 98%. After two weeks of very high temperatures and a heatwave, there was a drop and rain at the weekend in all the region, with up to 60-70 mm in some cases. Today all factories are closed and they should restart on Thursday or Friday. The forecast is reduced following lower yields than expected especially in the east of the region (Ferrara, Ravena).
South – As of 20 August a total of 1.2 million tonnes have been processed which is 41% of contracts. As of today, it is about 50%. Most of the factories are stopped today following the rains. They should restart tomorrow or Friday. In Puglia rain was less intense, but in Tuscany, Lazio, Campania, and Basilicata rains was more intense. Quality is very good so far although brix is medium. Effects of the rains will need to be assessed.  
As overall yields have been a little bit lower than expected, the overall forecast for Italy is revised down from 5.6 to 5.5 million tonnes. The final results will depend on the weather in September, but the forecast is good for the next 10 days.

There have been a few days of high heat around 21-24 August after which the temperatures dropped, with very cool temperatures at night (15°C) and a lot of wind. To date, 67% of the forecast has been processed and it has been a smooth season so far with a potential to exceed forecasts. There are some concerns, however, over the late fields especially due to insect infestation, mainly tuta absoluta and spider mites in the late fields, which could affect the late crop and further reduce yields which have been lower in the second half of the crop. Some rain is forecast for next Monday and Tuesday. The harvest should continue with significant volumes for two weeks, and then for a further 1 or 2 weeks. The forecast remains unchanged.
The harvest is reaching the end in Andalusia here the first factory will close next week.  In Extremadura the harvest is at about 65% of expectations. The recent heatwave with temperatures over 40°C for a few days had some effect on yields which are a bit lower than expected. Some rain is forecast for the coming weekend. The forecast remains unchanged.
Tomato processing is currently ongoing at 3 of the 18 plants, with a daily output of around 600 tonnes, enabling more than 600,000 tonnes to be processed since the start of the campaign.
Only about 45% of the surfaces have been harvested as the crop is exceptionally late, with at least two weeks delay: whereas the peak production should have been reached around 20-25 August, it is only now arriving today. The weather is good with stable temperatures and no rain is forecast. The areas harvest now including the Konya region which is coming into production have not suffered from high heat and thus yields are good. Although there are concerns for what the weather may be for the last 10-15 days of the harvest as the crop is very late, the forecast remains unchanged.

Rain during transplanting affected some fields and some areas had to be transplanted again. This is expected to have caused a 5 to 7% reduction for volumes. Moreover another 7 to 8% reduction is expected with low brix at fields, with fruits now received at 4.1-4.3 brix only. Altogether operators are now expecting a reduction of about 15% in the crop size from just above 2 million tonnes to 1.7 million tonnes. 
The estimate is to process 1,099,152 tons this week. At the end of this week (week ending 9/02) we will have processed 5,508,802 tons. At the of this week approximately 40-45% of the crop will have been harvested. 
We will need to process at or near capacity for the next 2 months in order to complete this harvest. As we have stated earlier, the tonnage number will depend greatly on September and October weather and harvesting conditions, as these are the months that produce the greater risks. When we reach the midway point in the season, we will be better positioned to make an adjustment to the previous estimate. In the Southern part of the state, we are seeing some impacts to the rains that we received earlier in August. This has caused a few fields in some cases to be bypassed due to mold.
No change to report.
Harvest in the Kanto and Chubu regions was almost completed, and growth was relatively smooth. Harvesting will begin in Hokkaido, one of the major producing regions, but there are concerns that the harvest will decrease slightly due to the effects of the drought. Total volume of tomatoes to be processed is the same as the last report.

WPTC world production estimate:
WPTC World Production estimate as of 1 September 2023
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