WPTC crop update as of 3 September 2021
, Sophie Colvine
- 2021 Season
After the publication of the new California estimate and minor adjustements in other countries, the global world production estimate for 2021 is reduced to 38.5 million metric tonnes, very close to 2020's final volume of 38.4 million tonnes and one million tonnes under the first estimates for the season.
WPTC world production estimate as of 3 September 2021
perators are still harvesting and processing at high level as we are in the middle in summer season, nothing new as the forecast remains the same. Quality remains good in terms of colour, brix & yield.
To date, about 70,000 tonnes have been processed, which is 40% of the forecast. Average brix of 4.75. The situation is currently good with finally a favourable weather, but autumnal rains are a worry. The harvest should continue until mid October or even later in the southwest where harvest is delayed.
The crop is developing very well, and quality is good. There was a small slow down last week due to the change between mid-season and late varieties. About 60% of the total volume has been processed to date. The harvest should finish in 10 to 15 days in the south.
On 1st of September harvesting is at circa 30 % of total surface which falls short of the usual 45 % at this time. Reasons are the later-than-usual start of the season and cooler, sporadically rainy weather. The areas are awaiting harvest in good condition, processing goes at maximum planned capacity. The quality and brix is good, the yields are medium as it was foreseen.
North- As of 22 August, the IO reported 1.39 million tons processed with an average brix of 5 and 4.21% penalties. Over 400,000 tonnes were processed weekly in the last fortnight as factories are running at full capacity so the total at the end of last week should be about 1.8 million tonnes, 60% of the contracted volumes. The Forecast remains at 2.8 million tons. The harvest should finish by the end of September. Conditions and quality are good with good colour and brix, but the production of diced and pulp is lagging behind the volume processed.
South- The harvest is progressing well at full capacity with good quality after a slow down last week due to rain. A record volume of 427,000 tonnes was processed during week 33. If September is good, production can exceed the forecast but for now the total estimate for Italy remains 5.5 million tonnes.
The weather has been good for the last two weeks despite a few drops of rain. About 51% of the forecast of 1.4 million tonnes has been processed to date. Quality remains good, with good colour and quite high brix. The harvest is now changing to the late varieties.
In Andalusia the factories are starting to close with only one expected to continue into September as the heatwave accelerated the maturation. Quality remains good.
In Extremadura about 65% of the crop has been processed to date and the harvest is progressing faster than expected with good farm yields. Quality is good.
The forecast remains 3.1 million tonnes.
The season ended at during the last week of August with a total of 935,000 tonnes, including 920,000 tonnes for paste production and 15,000 tonnes for canned production.
The harvest is finished in the south, but many tomatoes were left in the fields due to a lack of manpower and transport. In the north, some tomatoes are sold to the fresh market to be exported (to Syria notably) and spot price are increasing rapidly (about 40% of the volume is not contracted). There was no peak in production this year and the harvest is going generally well and should continue into October. The forecast remains unchanged at 2.1 million tonnes.
The harvest is going at full speed now due to the good weather of hot days and cold nights. To date 28% of the 820,000 tonnes forecast has been processed. Quality is good with a very good brix of 5.
Other WPTC countries
A total of 16,030 hectares were planted in 2021, up from 14,505 hectares in 2020. With an estimated yield of 98 t/ha, the total forecast is 1.57 million tonnes with an average brix of 4.5-4.7. To date, about 50% of the crop has been harvested with an average yield of 95 t/ha.
The estimate is to process 955,147 tons (866494 metric tonnes) this week. At the end of this week (week ending 4 September) we will have processed 6,787,298 tons (6,157,333 metric tonnes). Yields continue to be below contract so far this season. On August 31, NASS released its latest crop estimate at 11.1 million tons (10.07 million metric tonnes). Incoming brix is averaging 5.32% year to date vs. 5.37% last year at the same point in time. Quality and color continue to perform well.
Preliminary tomato contract intentions for 2021 are 548,185 shorts tons (497,305 metric tonnes). It is estimated that approximately 20% of the crop may have been lost due to excess rains earlier in the season. Harvest is underway with approximately 22% of the total crop delivered.
Due to the heavy rain in the first half of August, the overall yield may decrease. The forecast remains 32,000 tonnes.
The forecast for South Africa remans unchanged at 130,000 tonnes.
The crop started a bit late, at around the midfle of August, so it is still in relatively early stage. Weather conditions were similar to Greece, with a heat wave in August that probably caused some flower abortion and/or scorching. Indications are production will be no higher than last year, with a current estimate of 40.000 tonnes.
Other US States
The Midwest tomato forecast is unchanged. Midwest pack has started and growers are seeing higher yields to start. We predict yields will fall toward the end to keep the earlier estimate of 500,000 short tons (454,000 metric tonnes) accurate.
WPTC world production estimate: