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AMITOM: A reduced 2022 forecast

12/04/2022 - AMITOM , Sophie Colvine - 2022 Season - Lire en français
According to information exchanged by its members during its general assembly on 4 April, the 2022 forecast for the AMITOM countries currently stands at 16.8 million tonnes. This forecast represents a reduction of 11% compared with the 19 million tonnes processed in 2021, but it includes 500,000 tonnes to be processed in Ukraine, which is now in serious doubt, so total production will probably be lowered further.
The forecast remains 170,000 tonnes although there are still uncertainties as to the final surface to be planted by growers.
The forecast remains 380,000 tonnes, but it is still uncertain it will be achieved as competing crops are attractive especially in the Centre of the country.
Processors were not successful in increasing the surfaces during the negotiations with farmers. The raw tomato price increase was enough only for maintaining the previous estimate of 100,000 tonnes.
North- The surfaces should decrease by 5 to 10% to about 36,000 hectares. Competitive crops are also an issue here and there is some concerns too about drought. Some storms last weekend only brought 15 to 35 mm of rain which is not enough. Price negotiations are still ongoing within a range of 105 to 110 euros/tonne.
Centre/South- Water is not an issue in the region as the Occhito reservoir is full. There are some concerns about the late crop volumes as growers are not keen to take risk following the high costs. Prices will only be set after the north has an agreement but the farmers ask a price higher than last year.

The overall forecast remains 5.4 million tonnes.
The forecast remains unchanged at 1.45 million tonnes but as in other countries water availability and competing crops are a challenge.
It rained a fortnight ago which was welcome before planting which started last week in Andalusia and will begin in this week in Extremadura. Water allocation in Extremadura was released on 6 April and is around 12% more than it was at the end of January by the time contracts where done. This is not going to increase tomato surface as the only possibility would be to plant very late tomatoes and farmers will prefer to plant corn or sunflower but at least will help to secure the contracted hectares in Extremadura and will give farmers some tranquility on water availability during summer. As the price of sunflower seeds is increasing (around 1000 euro/tonne), it is expected that the surface planted could be further reduced. The current forecast is for a maximum of 2.5 million tonnes to be processed in 2022.
The forecast remains for between 12,000 and 14,000 hectares to be planted which would bring a maximum production of 940,000 tonnes at an average yield of 67t/ha. The volume to be processed is currently estimated at 800,000 tonnes fresh tomatoes, 123,000 tonnes of tomato paste.  
The forecast remains the same at just below two million tonnes due to a reduction of surfaces due to competitive crops like corn, sugar beet, ...
It is now becoming uncertain that fields can be planted but more information will be given in the next few days. 
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