The annual growth rate (CAGR) of global ketchup sales volumes is expected to increase by around 3% in the coming years, while the growth rate in terms of value of the global ketchup market is expected to remain at around 2.4%.
3.6 million tonnes and 6.5 billion Euros: these figures provided by Euromonitor define the size and value of the global ketchup market forecast for 2023.
Quantities are 3% up on 2022 (3.5 million t) and 7% above the average for the previous three years (3.38 million t). Moreover, Euromonitor's growth forecasts suggest that global volumes could exceed 4 million tonnes by 2027, with a market value of EUR 7.2 billion.
In 2022, the European (35%), North American (25%), and Asia-Pacific (22%) markets alone accounted for over 80% of global sales volumes.
The years 2020 and 2021 have seen, to a greater or lesser extent but in all the regions considered, a significant drop in volumes, together with a marked slowdown in sales in the foodservice sector, and a clear shift towards retail distribution, as a consequence of the lock-down imposed in most countries around the world during the Covid pandemic (see additional information at the end of the article).
With the notable exception of Australasia, all regional markets surveyed by Euromonitor show a clear recovery after the Covid period. Following more or less dynamic growth depending on the region, the North American market is set to give up its 1st place to the Asia-Pacific market in terms of ketchup consumption, and the gap with Western Europe is expected to narrow. By 2027, Eastern Europe and Latin America should be on a par, ahead of the Middle East and Africa, where ketchup consumption remains relatively marginal.
Over the next four years, the average annual growth rate (CAGR) in volumes for the North American market is expected to be relatively slow, at around 0.8% per year. This rate of growth is lower than the 2.2% to 2.3% expected for Europe. The markets of the Middle East, Africa and Latin America are credited by Euromonitor with strong growth prospects of between 4% and 4.1%. But all records are due to be broken by the expected growth in the Asia-Pacific region, of around 5.9% per year between now and 2027, three times faster than in Europe and seven times faster than in North America.
Expected average annual growth rates (CAGR) in terms of value are even more contrasted, ranging from -0.3% to 0.7% in North America, Australasia and Europe, while developments could take place at a rate of 4% to 5% in the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific and Latin America.
Some complementary data
Development and distribution of ketchup sales between the retail and food-service sectors until 2022, forecasts to 2027.
