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News

WPTC first global forecast for the 2022 crop

18/03/2022 - Sophie Colvine , François-Xavier Branthôme - 2022 Season
The outlook for global processing for the 2022 season stands at 39.7 million metric tonnes according to the WPTC estimate released on 15 March 2022. However, these figures represent more an intention of processors than a real forecast due to uncertainties about the volumes that will actually be implemented, particularly in Ukraine, China, California and in some other countries.
 
These forecasts will be presented in detail and discussed on Monday 21 March 2022 as part of the first session of the World Processing Tomato Congress, where the latest global consumption estimates will also be presented.
 
 
 
 
AMITOM
Egypt
No change from the previous forecast of 440,000 tonnes.
 
France
No change from the previous estimate of 170,000 tonnes.
 
Greece
It is difficult to convince farmers to grow tomatoes as competitive crop like cotton and corn are more attractive for them. The previous estimate of 380,000 tonnes remains current.
 
Hungary
No change from the previous estimate of 100,000 tonnes.
 
Italy
Price negotiations are still going on and a price has to date only been agreed for organic tomatoes at 140 euros per tonne in the North (up 5 euros from last year). There is a big competition with corn and soja notably which are less expensive and risky crops for the farmers. The forecast remains 5.4 million tonnes as announced previously.
 
Portugal
There is not much change since the last update and preparations for the season are ongoing. It rained last week but this will not change the water situation. The forecast remains 1.45 million tonnes.   
 
Russia
It is hard to forecast in the current environment, but everyone is preparing for the season. The surface to plant is up to 7,500 hectares for 600,000 tonnes of tomatoes to be processed
 
Spain
The large reduction of surfaces compared to 2021 due to the lack of water (in Extremadura the water allocation in not yet clear) and the high price of competitive crops (sunflower, corn, etc.) is confirmed. The crop is estimated at a maximum of 2.5 million tonnes. 
 
Tunisia
The winter was dry and most of the reservoirs have not been filled to capacity. Consequently, there is a reduction in the surface planted with tomatoes in some regions, with a total of only 12,000 to 14,000 hectares expected (17,000 hectares in 2021). With an average yield of 67t/ha this would mean a production of between 800,000 tonnes and 940,000 tonnes. The main varieties planted are Savéra (65%), Heinz varieties, Ercole, Topsport. Some of the processors are introducing quality incentives for tomatoes and the price should be about 200 millimes per kg (approx. 68 USD/tonnes).
 
Turkey
As indicated previously, there will be a small reduction in surfaces this year notably due to a competition with corn. Moreover, farmers are now offered incentives by the government to plant corn and wheat due to the situation in Ukraine. The forecast remains about 1.95 million tonnes.
 
Ukraine
Kherson region which represents slightly less than 40% of Ukrainian tomato area and processing is occupied by Russians. Mykolaiv region that gives another 50% of the area and processing is fighting with them now. Consequently, the season should be at least three weeks late. It is still possible to process about 500 000 tonnes, but it will strongly depend on the success of the Ukrainian army and negotiations during the next two weeks.
 
 
Other Northern hemisphere
Brazil
Most processors are wanting to plant early and to increase surfaces. The forecast for 2022 is about 1.8 million tonnes, up from 1.5 million tonnes in 2021. 
 
California
It is unlikely that the crop size will reach the official January estimate of 12.2 million short tons (11 million metric tonnes) but it is impossible to give a new figure at the moment. Planning the season is an ongoing challenge due to issues with water availability (some growers still do not know what their water allocation will be), the attractivity of less risky alternative crops, combined with the increased cost of diesel and other inputs. 
 
Canada
The negotiations are now finished, and the forecast is established at 525,000 short tons (476,000 metric tonnes) which is the processors capacity.
 
China
The current forecast is for a surface of 770,000 MU (51,333 hectares) to be planted, which could bring up to 5.8 million tonnes with an average yield of 113 t/ha (which is a very high estimated yield). There is a strong competition with other crops like cotton in Xinjiang, and corn, sunflower and soja beans in Inner Mongolia where the government is giving incentives to plant oil seeds and cereals. Consequently, it is not known yet if farmers will plant all the surfaces and a more accurate forecast can only be given after the end of transplanting in May. In Inner Mongolia, there is a rapid increased in mechanization of all farm operation to cope with labour shortage and yields are up to 95 t/ha with an average of about 60 t/ha.
 
Japan
The current forecast is 29,000 tonnes from 470 hectares (yield of 61 t/ha expected). The price of tomatoes is equivalent to 535 USD/t. 
 
Other US States
Expectations in terms of surfaces and volume are similar to last year (462,000 metric tonnes processed).
 
 
Southern hemisphere
Argentina
The harvest is going well with a dry and sunny weather and approximately 60% of the 7,700 hectares have been harvested to date, about 600,000 tonnes. The harvest should finish early in May in San Juan with a total volume expected of abut 620-630,000 tonnes.
 
Australia
The estimate is reduced slightly to 255,000 tonnes due to rains which is disrupting the harvest of the 2,500 hectares planted with season.
 
Chile
The harvest is ongoing. The surface planted for the season was 10,500 hectares, bringing a forecast of 1.05 million tonnes with an estimated yield of 100 t/ha. Chile still suffering a severe drought, but it is managed ok by companies and farmers and with 85% of the surface with drip irrigation. All three companies are processing, and the harvest started on 26 January and should continue until last week of April (estimate). The harvest is 50% complete. The weather so far has been warm and dry, without rains and temperatures of about 30°C this week. Fruit quality is good, and the paste produced has a good colour.
 
Peru
A total volume of 125,000 tonnes should be processed this season.
 
 
Some complementary data
 
 
Sources: WPTC
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