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News

WPTC expects 40.5 million tonnes in 2025

13/02/2025 - Sophie Colvine - 2025 season
The WPTC global world production estimate for 2025 stands at 40.5 million tonnes according to the information shared between the organization's members during their annual meeting in Sacramento on 5 February.

AMITOM countries

There is no change to the forecast released following AMITOM’s meeting on 17 January. The total estimate is currently very close to 2024 final production with a total of 17.15 million tonnes expected.
 
In EGYPT, the total forecast for 2025 remains 780,000 tonnes. It is now the peak of the winter crop which will last till next April, while transplanting for the summer crop should start within few days and shall last till May while harvesting will start in the earlier transplanted areas. Price is about 130 USD/t (120 EUR/t) delivered to factories. There is no issue with water availability either from the underground or from the Nile River.
 
In IRAN, tomato paste production saw a sharp 30% decline in 2024 compared to 2023. However, forecasts suggest an improvement in 2025, with production expected to reach 2 million tonnes. That said, it remains too early to make definitive predictions, as further updates on volumes will become available in the coming months. Additionally, the currency situation remains highly uncertain, especially with Mr. Trump’s return to the political scene and the potential impact of his policies on Iran. This could significantly influence Iran’s currency market, which in turn would affect tomato processing and export dynamics. Overall, the outlook remains uncertain, and we will continue to monitor the situation and provide further updates in the weeks and months ahead.
 
In FRANCE, a first estimate is 180,000 tonnes, but it is still too early to confirm this number. 
 
In PORTUGAL, nothing is settled but processors are targeting a reduction from just over 1.5 million tonnes in 2024 to 1.4 million tonnes or less. Negotiations are planned next week. 
 
In SPAIN, there is no official figure, but a significant reduction is expected in 2025, from nearly 3.1 million tonnes in 2024 to 2.4 million tonnes. 
 
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE COUNTRIES 

In CANADA, production was down in 2024 and should increase slightly in 2025 with an early estimate of 575,000 short tons or 520 000 tonnes, but negotiations are starting now. 
 
In CALIFORNIA, there should be a reduction of surfaces planted of 14% to 200,000 acres (81,000 ha) from 228,000 acres (92,000 ha) planted in 2024, resulting in a January estimate of 9.25 million metric tonnes (10.2 million short tons), down from 10.25 million metric tonnes (11.3 million short tons) in January 2024. The volume forecast is however very optimistic as it is based on an average yield of 51 t/acre, which was only reached in 2023, while the average yield is closer to 48 t/acre. 
 
In CHINA, the crop forecast for 2025 is 6 million tonnes, down from 10.45 million tonnes in 2024. Due to the low price in 2024, growers’ willingness to plant is low in 2025.
 
In JAPAN, the expected surfaces (to be) planted is 430 ha for a total volume of tomatoes to be processed of 26,000 tonnes.  Planted area is on the decline as growers are aging and an increasing number of people are leaving farming. Although efforts are being made to continually recruit new farmers, it is difficult to expand the planted area, so processors are focusing on increasing harvest volumes.
 
 
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE COUNTRIES 

In AUSTRALIA, the initial forecast was 215,000 tonnes but it is now reduced to 202,000 tonnes. Harvest started on 28 January with most growers starting this week.  After a few early issues with some rain and waterlogging of some fields, conditions have been mostly good and dry to date, although there were some rains in the last couple of days. The outlook looks dry. New technology such as spraying from drones enable to react quickly. An average yield of 00 t/ha is expected.
 
In CHILE, there is no change to the crop forecast of 1,39 million tonnes, with a yield forecast of 100 t/ha. The harvest started on 16 January, but it is not yet at full speed, and it is a slow start. 
 
In PERU, the weather is good, and the forecast remains 150,000 tonnes.
 
In SOUTH AFRICA, a 160,000 tonnes harvest remains planned for the 2025 season. The summer production areas started harvesting from Mid- January and will continue until mid- May. The projected summer volumes are still on schedule. The winter production areas currently are still transplanting, the planting schedule were disrupted by heavy sub-tropical rainfall, but the plantings recover and are back to schedule for a harvesting period from April till September 2025.

 
GLOBAL FORECAST

In view of these figures, the WPTC global world production estimate for 2025 stands at 40.5 million tonnes, 11.5% lower than 2024 final production of 45.8 million tonnes. 

On average over the last ten years, the final production volume was 1.8% lower than the WPTC February estimate, with production higher than the early forecast only once over the period. 
 

Some complementary data

Source: WPTC
WPTC World Production estimate as of 5 February 2025
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AMITOM

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