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News

WPTC crop update as of 6 September 2024

10/09/2024 - Sophie Colvine - 2024 Season
As the season progresses, the current global forecast has been reduced by more than one million tonnes compared to pre-season estimates, to just over 46 million tonnes. 

AMITOM COUNTRIES
 
BULGARIA
The harvest is progressing well with about 25% of the target processed to date by the largest company, with the season expected to end around 10 October. Quality and weather are ok and the forecast remains unchanged.
 
EGYPT
Last week the temperatures returned back to the normal level of 34-36 °C and harvesting of the late summer crop is in progress. Harvesting of Nili crop expected to start by mid of October, meanwhile transplanting of the winter crop has started since August and shall continue till November. For now, the forecast remains the same with no changes.
 
FRANCE
To date, 80,000 tonnes out of 185,000 have been processed, with 5.8 penalties and 5.08 brix. The rain has come at just the wrong time, as we are entering the phase where we are behind in the first crops and ahead in the full season tomatoes. The famous crossroads we've all been waiting for. Rain is expected today and this weekend, which could lead to interruptions in the campaign this weekend. The quality is good so far. The forecast remains unchanged. 
 
GREECE
In the south, about 90% of the total volume has been processed and factories should close next week. Overall, abut 70% of the volumes has been processed to date, and the harvest should continue until the end of September in the centre and north. Brix is about 5 on average but reducing now. August 2024 was the hottest in 14 years. Rains are expected this week.  A 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes reduction in the total volume is expected so the forecast is revised down to 485,000 tonnes, although it will depend on the weather in September. 
 
HUNGARY
Processing is progressing well with more than 70% of the raw tomato already processed. The weather is hot and dry. Quality is good, with an average Brix is above 5.1. The total forecast is unchanged at 115.000 tonnes. The end of processing is expected between 15 and 20 September, depending on the weather.
 
IRAN
The harvest is finishing in the south and started in September in the north. One major issue is the frequent electricity power cuts to the factories to favour the high demand for air conditioning by households due to the very hot temperatures as the producing capacity cannot fulfil total demand. Moreover, harvest is delayed, and factories do not always accept the high prices requested by farmers. The harvest should end in October. There is no change to the forecast which remains 1.5 to 1.6 million tonnes, but it will depend on the weather is September, which is good so far despite some small rains.
 
ITALY
In the North, as of 25 August, only 1.38 million tonnes had been processed as the crop is delayed by about a week (300,000 tonnes more had been processed at the same date last year). Average brix was 5,12 with 4.82% penalties. Less than 50% of the total surfaces remain to be harvested and it will be a challenge to get to the target of 2.8 million tonnes. Quality remains good with no over ripening in the fields. The weather forecast is not good with rains expected over the next few days which should lead to slowdowns or stops in tomato deliveries.
The forecast remains unchanged for now, but good weather will be needed for all of September and the first week of October to reach it.
In the South, as of 25 August, 1.89 million tonnes had been processed. Some factories are closing this week as they have reached their target. There is some concern that the yield in September will be lower, but the rains which are expected may be helpful, to counterbalance the lack of irrigation water with the closure of the Occhito dam. Brix is lower than usual with below 4.8 instead of the usual 5.0-5.1. 
A probable increase in production should balance the reduction in the north so the overall forecast for Italy is maintained.
 
PORTUGAL
The crop is late and to date about 45% of the contract volume has been processed. At this rate the harvest should continue until the first week of October. Quality is good and brix a bit higher than in 2023. The weather forecast is goof for the next two weeks and the forecast remains unchanged. 
 
SPAIN
As of 31 August, 59% of the forecast had been processed, which is less than the 66% average of the last few years. In the last two weeks the volume processed in Extremadura was a record which meant a high pressure on the factories. In the Vegas Altas, yields are good, while in the Vegas Bajas volumes are lower than usual due to lower yields than expected. In Andalusia, yields are also lower than expected and the harvest should end on 15 September. Quality is generally good but while brix is good in the Vegas Altas, it is lower than usual in the Vegas Bajas and Andalusia. The weather is now good, with temperatures still high this week but which should drop in the next two weeks but with no rains expected. 
The forecast remains unchanged but final volume will depend on the weather in September. 
 
TUNISIA
Only 5 processing units are still in operation and 930,000 tonnes have already been processed broken down by region as follows:
41% in Cap Bon
14% in Greater Tunis
32% Béja and Kef (north-west)
13% Kairouan (South)
 
TURKEY
The harvest is now over in the south with about 80% in the centre-south and 60% in the Bursa area, while in Konya the season has just started. Overall, about 60to 65% of the total volume has now been processed. Then weather remains good despite some localised showers which do not cause stoppages, and the outlook is currently good. The total forecast remains unchanged, but brix is lower than usual at about 4.6-4.7. Quality is ok.
 
 
OTHER COUNTRIES
 
BRAZIL
There is no change to the forecast. 
 
CALIFORNIA
The estimate is to process 1,003,887 short tons (909,906 metric tonnes) this week. At the end of this week (week ending September 7) we will have processed 7,690,029 short tons (6,976,251 metric tonnes) Nothing new to report since our last update. The crop continues to perform close to contracted levels at this time and by the end of the week we will be close to 70% completion of the harvest. Weather permitting unlike prior years we will have relatively small volumes in October. The NASS report was released last week with an estimated 11.3 million short tons (10.245 million metric tonnes). Based on reports from the field most believe this will be close to the final number.
 
CANADA
The weather lately has been more favourable, with no increase in disease pressure.  Overall, the crop looks OK, with solids that are slightly lower than normal and good colour. Harvest is approximately 20% complete. 
 
CHINA
A total reduction of at least 5% is expected at the time of writing, which would bring the size of the crop to a maximum of 10.45 million tonnes.
 
JAPAN
Typhoon No. 10, which struck Japan from late August to early September, caused record-breaking rainfall and tornadoes and other strong winds across the country, causing widespread damage. The extent of damage to tomato fields for processing is still unknown, but the harvest in the Tohoku region may be reduced. At present the total volume of tomatoes to be processed remains 29,000 tonnes. 
 
SOUTH AFRICA
South Africa planned for 160 000 tonnes for the 2024 season. The summer crop in the Western Cape gave good yields of 90 t/ha average and with good brix levels above 5.5 brix. The winter crop in the Northern Limpopo areas struggle to get over 70 t/ha average, due to some abnormal winter conditions this season. The yield losses occurred was mainly due to 6 days of persisting “black frost” conditions. The current projection is 140,000 tonnes for South Africa and the season should end by the end of September.
WPTC World Production estimate as of 6 September 2024
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