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WPTC Crop update as of 1 October 2021

04/10/2021 - WPTC , Sophie Colvine - 2021 Season
The 2021 harvest is now ending in most countries with the only major uncertainty remaining being the actual volume which will be processed in California.

AMITOM countries 

We are now in the transition period between the summer and the Nile crop where harvesting should begin by mid of October and factories shall start processing accordingly. Quality of tomatoes looks good in terms of color, brix & yield. The forecast remains the same.

It rained a lot in the southwest with a total cumulated rainfall of 150 to 200 mm in September. Consequently, the harvest has been disrupted, and it is impossible to harvest some fields which remain waterlogged. More rain is forecast for the coming weekend. Harvest should continue until around 10 October.
In the southeast, the recent rains have not stopped the factories, which will close at the end of this week or the middle of the next one.
As of 26 September, 143,000 tonnes had been processed with an average brix of 4.63. The expected total is now reduced to 165,000 tonnes.    

The end of the harvest is disrupted with some rains in the last few days but mainly by a shortage of trucks due to the cotton season starting earlier than usual. This could lead to a loss of 10,000 tonnes to a newly estimated total of 430,000 tonnes. About 400,000 tonnes have already been processed, with good colour, brix and quality to date. 

The end of processing is coming soon as the last planned operation day is 30th of September. The yields of late ripening fields are better than expected therefore the total estimated volume for Hungary is increased back to the originally planned 100,000 tonnes. Average Brix is still just above 5, which is the best result in the last few years.

In the North, the latest OI report show that as of 19 September, 2.8 million tonnes had been processed, 91.6% of the volume contracted with an average brix of 4.92 and 4.27% penalty. Between 12 and 19 September, 280,000 tonnes were processed between 12 and 19 September with farm yields remaining high but a lower brix of 4.76 on average. The rain that arrived last weekend affected the cultivation area, especially in the eastern part of the region. Some factories have now closed, many will finish at the end of September. The high yields in September mean that final production will be close to the volume of the contracts and the forecast is raised from 2.9 million tonnes to 3 million tonnes.
In the South, the harvest is still going well with farm yields above the estimates in September. Thanks to the best weather in 10 to 15 years, the season has been good and the forecast in the region is also increased to 2.9 million tonnes, meaning the estimate for Italy is now 5.9 million tonnes. Overall, it is a very good season, only limited by the availability of packaging.

The tomato growing regions have avoided the worst rains and have managed to slow production without stopping it altogether. The brix which started very high ended quite low. Most factories will close this weekend with a total volume processed expected to total about 1.5 million tonnes. 

About 80% of the total forecast of 550,000 tonnes has been processed to date. The harvest will continue until the mid of October, if the weather supports our efforts. With the actual declines in weekly delivered tomatoes, the final volume might be 5-7% lower than forecast.

In Andalusia, the season finished on 20 September with the closure of the last factory. The end of the season was affected by some rains, but all fields could be harvested. Quality and brix were good with about 5° on average.
In Extremadura, heavy rains on 14 September, especially in the Vegas Baja with more than 50 mm, lead to the closure of the factories for 3 or 4 days. Another heavy episode on Thursday 23 September with 50-60 mm or more, closed the factories again but they have not yet reopened. More rain is forecast for the coming weekend. This succession of rainy episodes mean that while the harvest looked promising with high yields, some tomatoes will be left in the fields. The brix which was very good at first is very low in September. The production of dices will be reduced. 
In the north, it rained a lot in September with a total of between 100 and 150 mm so the harvest has been stop-and-go, with an expected 10% reduction of the forecast in the region.
Overall, the forecast remains 3.1 million tonnes, when it should have been higher if all fields in Extremadura could have been harvested.    

The results of the 2021 processing season in Tunisia has been updated to 938,000 tonnes processed, of which 926,000 tonnes to produce double concentrate and 12,000 tonnes to produce canned tomatoes. The total volume of double concentrate is estimated at 140,000 tonnes.

The season has come to an end. Production for a few factories went on until this week with tomatoes from the Konya area. The production estimate remains the same as the initial forecast of 2.2 million tonnes.

Other countries

The estimate is to process 748,871 short tons (679,364 metric tonnes) this week. At the end of this week (week ending 10/02) we will have processed 9,794,166 short tons (8,884,967 metric tonnes). A few factories have completed production and the industry expects to finish the later part of October.  With the recent declines in weekly delivered tonnage it is highly unlikely the state will reach the 11,100,000 short tons (10.07 million metric tonnes) projection.    Incoming brix is averaging 5.28% year to date vs. 5.24% last year at the same point in time. Quality and color continue to perform well.

Tomato harvest is approximately 85% complete. Processors have reported that yields will be below average. Solids, colour and quality are good, however, less than achieved in previous years.

There is no sign of a crop reduction compared with the forecast of 4.8 million tonnes. The production season is coming to an end and the final results will be available by mid-October.

The harvest has been completed almost nationwide. The estimate remains 30,000 tonnes. 

South Africa
No change in the forecast. 

Source: WPTC
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