In 2023/2024, the importance of the leading countries in the context of worldwide trade has been further eroded due to the increase in competition, particularly with emerging countries, and the growing autonomy of a number of importing countries.
As shown by the monthly statistics on our website Tomato News, the quantities of tomato products shipped in the context of trade around the world have been increasing more or less steadily year after year. In 2023/2024, export volumes exceeded 3.9 million metric tonnes (t) for pastes (HS codes 200290), 1.9 million t for canned tomatoes (HS codes 200210) and 1.6 million t for sauces and ketchup (codes 210320).
These quantities have approximately doubled over the past twenty years, and the number of countries significantly involved in these exchanges has also increased. However, a quick comparison of operations in the various product categories reveals a gradual loss of influence on the part of the leading first processing countries.
The TOP12 paste exporting countries
Only taking account of the performance of countries that are both primary processors and exporters (thus excluding countries with no agricultural production or tomato processing industry), it is clear that the list of countries included in the TOP12 annual list of paste exporting nations has changed considerably over the last twenty years, with the emergence, development or decline of a number of countries, depending on the climatic hazards of production, economic and political contexts, etc.
For example, of the twelve countries that rank among the world's top exporters of pastes in 2023/2024, only nine (China, Italy, the United States, Iran, Spain, Portugal, Turkey, Chile and Greece) have been in this group continuously over the past twenty-four years. The other positions, occupied last year on several occasions by Egypt, Peru and Poland, have also irregularly been held in the past by Ukraine, France, Hungary, Mexico, Brazil and Australia.
Since the early 2000s, the proportion of total world exports of tomato pastes accounted for by the TOP12 countries has slowly declined, from 96% in 2000/2001 and even 97% in 2006/2007 to just under 93% of the total in 2023/2024.
In the recent context of growing demand, the downturn is only relative and does not affect export volumes. But operations recorded for "other countries", which numbered around thirty in 2000/2001 and were estimated at around 45,000 t at that date, have clearly increased over the last two decades, mobilizing some eighty countries and approximately 200,000 t over the latest marketing year.
The TOP10 exporting countries for canned tomatoes
Taking into account only those countries that are both primary processors and exporters in the canned tomato category, seventeen national industries have, at one time or another over the last twenty-four years, claimed a spot in the TOP10 annual exporters of canned tomatoes. Of these, only five (Italy, Spain, the United States, Greece and Turkey) have been in this leading group without interruption, and four (Portugal, Mexico, France and China) have been absent from it only on rare occasions. Another four countries (Poland, Canada, Morocco and Argentina) appeared on the list only occasionally, while four (Bulgaria, Australia, Thailand and Chile) only appeared once or twice, in the early 2000s.
Over the period under review, the pre-eminence of the sector's five or six leading national industries, and in particular the Italian canned tomato industry (which alone accounts for 75 to 80% of the global annual market for this product category), leaves little room for competition from other countries. This dominance is a factor that attenuates variations in the "relative influence" of the various players in this category, with the countries that are not in the TOP10 remaining confined to a fairly marginal role. An analysis of annual performances does not reveal any clear or lasting patterns, as the balance between the leading group and the "other countries" is obviously determined more by global market trends than by national or supranational dynamics.
Against the backdrop of slow growth of exports for the canned tomato category over recent years, it is important to note that the TOP10 dominance in the worldwide canned tomato market strengthened from 2005/2006 onwards to control over 97% of total trade. This was its peak over the last twenty-four years, before it declined quite sharply during the past two years to represent "only" 94% of total trade in 2023/2024.
The TOP14 exporting countries for tomato sauces and ketchup
The very open and highly competitive nature of the global sauces and ketchup market, which involves countries that are primary processors of processing tomatoes, importers of pastes and remanufacturing operators, and even countries acting as mere "trading platforms", explains the multiplicity of players operating in the category. No fewer than twenty-eight countries have featured, at one time or another, in the TOP14 list of tomato sauce exporting countries over the last twenty-four years, only seven of which have done so uninterruptedly between 2000/2001 and 2023/2024 (the USA, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Germany and Portugal).
Against a backdrop of steady and virtually linear growth (CAGR 4.3% over 24 years) in volumes mobilized for worldwide exports, this dispersal of supply sources and the resulting irregularity of TOP14 annual incidence make it impossible to identify a clear dynamic in the complex competition governing the sauces and ketchup market. At the very most, we can point to a significant decline in the influence of the TOP14 between 2003/2004 and 2012/2013, subsequently corrected in a very irregular fashion over the past ten years.
Some complementary data
The thirty-six countries operating on the worldwide market for tomato products: number of years with each leading group (TOP12 for tomato paste, TOP10 for canned tomatoes and TOP14 for tomato sauces and ketchup) over the last twenty-four years.
Source: TDM
