Despite good results in terms of quantity, the surplus generated by the trade in tomato products has dropped by a third in value
As shown by the latest data published in our monthly world trade trackers (see also additional information below), US foreign sales of tomato pastes (codes 200290) have risen dramatically since the beginning of 2024.
For the full 2023-2024 marketing year, quantities delivered abroad totaled almost 385,000 tonnes (t), up 21% on last year's results (around 318,000 t) and compared to the previous three years (317,000 t). Between April and June 2024, monthly foreign trade results reached levels not seen since autumn 2016.
The improvement is even more marked in terms of the trade balance, with a surplus close to 339,000 t, up 26% on that of the 2022-2023 marketing year (269,000 t). The markets driving this development were mainly those of the Western EU (the Netherlands and, to a lesser extent, Italy), but also Japan, Mexico, Australia and Poland.
As Aaron Giampetro, from Morning Star, explained, "Fueled by the reliability of California's inventory levels, US exports of bulk tomato paste have surged, increasing about 18% compared to the previous three-year average, according to the USDA global agricultural trade system data. This growth reflects renewed confidence in California's high quality value added tomato paste; with imports in the United States trending lower, momentum is clearly shifting to California, emphasizing the strong position of our inventory and industry as we move forward.”
After several years of steady growth, the US trade balance surplus for canned tomatoes (codes 200210) has stagnated notably over the last two years: 2022-2023 saw a sharp decline (-20%) in foreign sales of canned tomatoes, and the slight upturn observed in 2023-2024 left the result for the year (around 52,000 t) below that of the 2021-2022 marketing year (62,000 t). Any growth has been driven by improved sales in Mexico and Costa Rica, against a backdrop of a marked acceleration of imports from Italy.
Over the last two years, the US sauces sector (codes 210320) has seen the emergence of new, antagonistic dynamics, with results in terms of quantity that are currently practically nil. The annual variation between the last two marketing years is less than 0.5%, with surpluses of around 216,000 t in both 2022-2023 and 2023-2024. This apparent stability in the US sauces and ketchups balance actually masks significant changes in both export quantities – up by over 49,000 t between the last two marketing years – and import quantities – up by over 48,000 t over the same period. Nevertheless, the US sauces balance in 2023-2024 is some 19,000 t lower than the average performance over the previous three years (2020-2023).
Export growth over the last two years has been driven by a refocusing of sales on the US sauces and ketchup industry's traditional markets: Canada, Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala and, to a lesser extent, Japan.
At the same time, imports of sauces from Italy have grown dramatically between 2021 and 2024, rising from less than 10,000 t annually to almost 70,000 t in 2022-2023, and then to almost 120,000 t in 2023-2024.
While these two dynamics cancel each other out in quantitative terms, they mark the final year of an exceptionally disappointing pattern, which closed with a result far lower in economic terms than the volumes involved would have given to expect. The surplus generated by US foreign sales has fallen sharply, from USD 463 million in 2022-2023 to just USD 316 million in 2023-2024, i.e. a drop of around one third. The reason for this fall is simple. While the average value of sauces and ketchups exported by the US industry has risen only modestly in recent years, the value of imported products, particularly from Italy, literally doubled between the last two years. Combined with an unprecedented acceleration in import flows, the rise in product prices has led to a steep rise in the total invoice for supplying the US market with sauces and ketchups, almost exactly offsetting export revenue results.
In terms of markets and revenues, the US trade balance for tomato products shows a surplus compared with most regions, starting with the rest of North America, where Canada accounts for almost all outlets for canned tomatoes, pastes and even more so for sauces. Trade is also positive with Central America, where Mexico and, to a lesser extent, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, provide US operators with regular and substantial outlets for pastes and sauces. Far Eastern markets (Japan, South Korea and Taiwan) also make a significant contribution to the US surplus of tomato products (see also additional information below).
Conversely, several countries positioned themselves last year as suppliers to the US market, with a well-documented impact on the US trade balance of tomato products. These countries were Chile and Turkey for pastes, Turkey and Italy for canned tomatoes, and Italy and Costa Rica for sauces.
Some complementary data
Main destination and origin markets, by product category, contributing significantly to the US balance of trade in tomato products.
Source: Trade Data Monitor
