The US stock situation as of June 1st, 2024, shows a surplus of around two months' apparent consumption and a slowdown in sales of pastes for remanufacturing.
According to the report published on July 2, 2024, by the California League of Food Producers (CLFP), total inventories of processed tomato products in the United States stood at just over 5.08 million metric tonnes (t) of fresh tomato equivalent on June 1st, 2024. These stocks are up 85% on the previous year's level (2.77 million t), due on the one hand to the significant increase in quantities processed during the 2023 season, and on the other hand to a slowdown in apparent US disappearance. In the twelve months from June 1st, 2023, to June 1st, 2024, physical stocks of tomato products fell by only 9.7 million metric tonnes, or 5.2% less than in the period June 2022-June 2023 (10.2 million t) (see also additional information below).
Given the stock situation and the current apparent pace of disappearance, the quantities of tomato products in US company warehouses as of June 1st should cover needs (domestic demand and exports) until early December. This is significantly longer than the four months or so that US industry operators usually consider satisfactory. As it stands, the (theoretical) surplus is around 1.8 million t (fresh tomato equivalent) and corresponds to 70 days of apparent disappearance.
In fact, seasonal apparent disappearance data recorded since June 2023 shows an annual consumption trajectory close to 11.2 million metric tonnes (fresh tomato equivalent). The US industry has forecast processing volumes for the 2024 season of 10.975 million t, slightly below this threshold. If these forecasts are confirmed by actual production, the surplus situation in June 2025 should be virtually identical to that of June 2024.
According to data published by the CLFP, total stocks of bulk tomato paste were estimated at just over 3.8 million t, in "tonnes paid" equivalent, on June 1st, 2024. This quantity includes bulk tomato paste stocks for sale (2.77 million t) and stocks for remanufacturing (around 1.06 million t). Added to this total are quantities of products other than paste, estimated at around 1.3 million tonnes.
These quantities are the result of dynamic sales (domestic and export) which, over the period June 2023-May 2024, mobilized 6.11 million t (fresh tomato equivalent) for the "paste for sale" category, 0.684 million t for the "paste for remanufacturing" category and 2.89 million t for products "other than paste", reaching a total of 9.68 million t (fresh tomato equivalent).
This overall result is slightly more than 5% down on annual sales recorded in June 2023 (see also additional information below). In detail, annual sales of "pastes for sale" and "other products" were slightly down, by 1.4% for the former category and 0.9% for the latter. On the other hand, the quantities intended for the sale of paste for remanufacturing fell sharply compared with the June 2022-June 2023 period, from 1.3 million t (fresh tomato equivalent) to 0.684 million t, a decrease of around 48%.
Some complementary data
Total US inventory situation in December, March and June, since 2019/2020.
CLFP statistical reports are estimates, based on voluntary reports from processors across the United States. Participating processors handle approximately 95.1% of total U.S. processing tomato tonnage and 99% of total U.S. paste production.
US paste stocks in December, March and June, since 2019/2020.
Apparent disappearance is generally lower during the spring period (April-June) than during the other periods of the year (summer-autumn, July-December) and winter (December-March). It should be noted, however, that the monthly rate of apparent disappearance recorded in the spring of 2024 is among the lowest of the last ten years. Only by going back to the spring of 2008 and 2016 is it possible to find equivalent levels.
Source: CLFP
