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News

Morning Star Tomato Bites: February 2025

04/03/2025 - Madeleine Royère-Koonings - 2025 season
Morning Star colleague Aaron Giampietro returns with another TOMATO BITES by Morning Star update. In this edition, he covers the official start of California’s 2025 tomato transplanting season and breaks down U.S. processed tomato supply trends, current inventory levels, and projections for the 2025 crop. 
 
Hello everyone, this is Aaron Giampietro from the Morning Star Packing Company with your February 28, 2025, Tomato Bite Update.

Yesterday marked the official start of transplanting season, with tomato seedlings leaving the greenhouse and making their way into the fertile soils of the Central Valley. With fantastic weather to kick things off, we’re pleased to be off to a strong start.

Over the next three months, California growers will plant over 1.4 billion tomato plants, carefully managing maturity for a smooth, efficient harvest. It’s all about timing—every step now lays the groundwork for success.

With planting underway, the next big question is, what will 2025 supply look like? At this stage, we already have a clear picture. Acres are booked, seedlings are in the greenhouse, and we’re closely tracking industry data—especially from the California League of Food Producers.

On December 1st, total U.S. processed tomato supply stood at 10.3 million raw short tons, following a six-month average disappearance rate of 1.15 million tons per month. We know that the disappearance rate is typically higher in the first half of the reporting year due to contract cycles. Using our estimates, if disappearance annualizes to 11.88 million tons, U.S. inventory by July 1, 2025 would be 4.5 million tons—roughly 4.5 months of stock on hand before the 2025 crop comes in.

To put that into perspective, processors generally aim for around 2.5 months of inventory to balance holding costs while maintaining strong service levels. At that level, we would have enough stock to get through mid-September, while actively packing the new crop.

The January USDA NASS report projects 200,000 acres planted with an estimated 51 tons per acre, totaling 10.2 million tons—about 8% less than 2024 harvested tonnage, as processors work to rebalance inventories after carrying in higher stocks from the last two seasons.

At 51 tons per acre, the yield assumption is optimistic, especially with the last decade averaging 48.8 tons per acre. When contracted acres shrink, growers tend to focus on their best-performing fields, which can push tonnage higher. While this supports the potential for above-average yields, it's still early, and we need to remain pragmatic. Based on the 10-year average field yield, our estimate suggests harvest could come in below 10 million tons. Some 2025 contract demand will need to be met with prior crop, helping reduce stock levels to a more balanced position.

On the demand side, California continues to increase its share of the North American market, which is seeing steady consumption growth. Meanwhile, Rest of World exports have remained stable, and current forecasts suggest this trend will continue.

We can pull all these inputs together and estimate that the U.S. industry will enter July 1, 2026, with around two and a half months of stock on hand, a reassuring projected inventory level, setting the stage for stronger, more typical production volumes in 2026. In the near term, export performance will be a key factor, especially with shifting global trade dynamics. While California’s quality, stability, and transparency continue to drive demand, we’ll be watching closely to see how international buyers react to pricing and availability.

California’s water position is solid for this time of year, with statewide snowpack at 92% of average and reservoirs at 118% of average following February storms. In response, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has more than doubled initial water allocations for Central Valley farmers south of the Delta compared to last year, while also committing $315 million to build Sites Reservoir and expand San Luis Reservoir. Additionally, the State Water Project has announced a 35% allocation, further supporting the need for investment in water storage and the Delta Tunnel project.

The Bottom Line – Global supply remains plentiful, but worldwide production is projected to decline by 10%. Our focus now is on delivering real value to the market while working toward lower inventory levels to ensure better balance. Despite uncertainty, our team is here to support you with supply chain optimization, business strategy, marketing planning, and innovation.

We’ll be back in a few months as transplanting nears completion, but in the meantime, feel free to reach out with any questions. And don’t forget to check our website for current market pricing and crop updates.
Thank you!

Supporting documents:


Source: The Morning Star Packing Company
 
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