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News

Iran: trade exploded in 2020/2021

14/03/2022 - François-Xavier Branthôme - Lire en français
An industry that is highly dependent on key Middle Eastern and Eurasian markets

The publication of Iran's official trade statistics, interrupted for an extended period between 2019 and 2020, has now resumed, and business figures of the industry for this key middle eastern country for the past two years are impressive.

After a clear downturn in 2018/2019, widely commented on in our previous article of February 2020, exports of tomato pastes produced by the Iranian processing industry benefited from the particular circumstances that also drove the activity of many global industrial sectors in 2019/2020 and 2020/2021.
In order to get accurate final results of Iranian exports (developed in our previous analysis), the quantities shipped abroad by the country in 2018/2019 turned out to amount to slightly less than 93,000 metric tonnes (mT) of finished products, a level that is 30% lower than those of the three previous marketing years (2015/2016 to 2017/2018) and 25% lower than those of the six previous marketing years (2012/2013 to 2017/2018). This mediocre performance marked a real break with the usual rhythm of Iran's foreign trade, which until then had been mainly influenced by the quite variable levels of demand from a few major client countries such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Russia. 

During the following marketing year (2019/2020), and with no change in geographical distribution, the Iranian industry first increased the volume of its foreign sales (nearly 147,000 mT of finished products) to a level very close to its best performance (148,000 mT in 2016/2017), greatly helped by the sharp increase in global demand for tomato products, particularly pastes, driven by the health crisis. For that first marketing year "under Covid", Iran's performance was in line with those of the major exporting countries of the sector, such as Italy, Spain, Turkey, Chile, Ukraine, etc.
The marketing year 2020/2021 saw a real explosion in the foreign sales of Iranian tomato pastes, which amounted to about 239,000 tonnes of finished products, up 93% compared to the pre-Covid period, when the best performances of the competing industries in Spain, Turkey or Chile considerably slowed their pace, with increases that did not exceed 20%. This latest marketing year saw several new destinations emerge for Iranian exports, which recorded significant increases on the markets of the Emirates, Armenia, Romania, Pakistan, Ghana, Kazakhstan, Syria, Lebanon, etc.
In the final count, markets of the Middle East (Iraq, Emirates) and Eurasia (Afghanistan, Russia, etc.) respectively absorbed 58% and 38% of the quantities exported by Iran.

The data available for the last few months show a clear decline in Iranian exports, which, being more exposed than those of other major national industries (China, Italy, Spain, Chile or Ukraine), fell by about 37% between the January-December 2020 period and the January-December 2021 period (see also our monthly articles on paste exports, mentioned at the end of the article).
The quantities exported from January to December 2021 were 9% lower (about 1,350 mT) than the average for the same period in the previous three years (2018 to 2020).

Some complementary data
Evolution of the monthly unit value of the quantities of Iranian paste exported between January 2015 and January 2022.

Sources: Trade Data Monitor

Further details in attached documents:
tne5950
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