Four countries account for 95% of German supplies
In the title of our previous review of the German tomato products market, we highlighted a symbolic threshold, estimating German purchases at just over half a billion euros in 2019, in other words, just before the outbreak of the Covid pandemic.
This amount has now been largely exceeded, due to an acceleration of consumption since spring 2020 that has dramatically increased German foreign purchases of tomato products: expenditure over the last marketing year amounted to more than EUR 651 million, spent for the most part on supplies of concentrated purees (EUR 283 million, 44% of the total), and, for the remainder, spent almost equally (28%) on imports of canned tomatoes (EUR 185 million) and sauces and ketchup (EUR 183 million).
German expenditure increased by 6% over the last two marketing years, driven by a significant increase in the paste category (+10%) and a relatively moderate increase in the categories of canned tomatoes (+5%) and sauces (+2%). This inflation in spending is much more obvious when compared to the period preceding the health crisis (marketing years 2016/2017 to 2018/2019), recording an overall increase of 20% (EUR 108 million) distributed more uniformly across all the categories, with increases ranging from 16% (EUR 26 million) on imports of canned tomatoes to 21% (EUR 48 million) on purchases of concentrated purees, and 23% (EUR 34 million) on the category of sauces and ketchup.
The increase in German expenditure is the result of combined increases in the quantities and prices of tomato products. In 2020/2021, imports absorbed 283,000 mT of concentrated purees, 11% more than in the three-year period preceding the pandemic, at an average unit price 9% higher than in that reference period. Supplies of sauces and ketchup amounted to just over 141,000 mT of products, a volume that was 12% higher than in the pre-Covid period and with a unit price increase of about 10%. Finally, in the canned tomatoes category, purchases remained practically stable (a decrease of less than 1%) but the unit value of products increased by 17%. In the end, although the last marketing year recorded a general increase in the price of tomato products accentuated by reduced availability of goods, it is the "quantity" component and thus the acceleration of demand that bears the main responsibility for the aggravation of the German trade deficit in the processed tomato products sector.
Less than a dozen countries share 95% of the German market supply, four of which stand out for their prominent position in one or more categories. The geographical proximity of Germany to some of the largest processing countries explains the key roles played by Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Portugal. To a lesser extent, German imports also involve products of Austrian, Ukrainian, Turkish, Polish and Chilean origin or provenance.
The 2020/21 marketing year recorded a mixed performance for the Italian industry on the German market, with a decline in sales of concentrated purees compared to recent years and minimal growth compared to the pre-Covid period, in any case lower than that of its direct competitors – Spain, Portugal and Ukraine. Of greater concern to the main leader of the global industry, the performance of canned tomatoes also stalled, with declines in all reference periods (the years prior to 2019/2020, the last three years 2017/2018 through 2019/2020, and the pre-Covid period). Only the sauces and ketchup category, with substantial increases in quantities over all the reference periods, recorded a good performance in 2020/2021 for the Italian industry.
German purchases of concentrated purées, on the other hand, led to good performances for the Spanish, Portuguese, Ukrainian and Turkish industries, which increased their volumes by several thousand tonnes and in a notable manner compared to all the reference periods.
Some complementary data
In the space of ten years, the amounts paid by Germany for its supplies of processed tomato products have increased by 57%, from EUR 416 million in 2010/2011 (index 100) to EUR 651 million in 2020/2021.
Details by sector for the unit value and for quantities:
Regardless of the soluble solids contents of imported finished products, German purchases of concentrated purees are increasingly focused on conditionings of less than 1 kg (20029019, 20029039 and 20029099), while products packaged in industrial formats (particularly under codes 20029031 and 20029091) are declining rapidly. Exceptions to this rule are "low concentration" purees (with a soluble solids content of less than 12%) packaged in industrial formats (20029011). In the end, German imports are a perfect illustration of the rapid growth in global demand for "low concentration" products (20029011 and 20029019) and the decline in demand for other product segments recently commented on in our articles on the global trade in tomato pastes (see related articles below).
Sources: Trade Data Monitor
