Drought conditions in Europe by the end of June 2024
The map displays persistent drought conditions in southern Europe, with severe, enduring, and critical conditions in the Mediterranean region. Compared to the previous period, Eastern Europe is experiencing worsening drought conditions that are affecting crops and vegetation.
Note: this analysis was performed on 10-07-2024, based on data from late June and computed with the version 4.0 of the Combined Drought Indicator.
The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) for late-June 2024 indicates warning drought conditions in eastern Spain, most of southern and central-eastern Italy, most of Romania, Poland, southern Baltic regions, most of Greece, Balkans, western Cyprus, Malta, and several Mediterranean islands, and wide regions in Türkiye. Watch conditions affect the southern Iberian Peninsula, regions in Eastern Europe, and central Scandinavia due to a recent precipitation deficit.
Central and north-eastern Iberian Peninsula, most of France, Czechia and Slovakia showed recovery or normal conditions, with some local extreme wet conditions leading to impacts on crop conditions. These impacts arise from the impossibility for farmers to access their fields with heavy machinery due to the soaked soil, various types of mould affecting the crops and lack of sunshine needed for ripening.
Large areas in the Mediterranean region, particularly in central and southern Italy, north-western Spain, Greece, and south-western Türkiye, were under alert drought conditions, with impacts on vegetation. This phenomenon remains much more severe and prolonged in northern Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, causing significant impacts. Alert conditions are progressively and intensively affecting Eastern Europe, particularly Ukraine, Romania, and Southern Russia. In the Rostov area, a drought emergency has been declared.
During this period, temperatures were above the seasonal average in Europe.
California: temperatures above normal, but the risk of drought is averted
According to the US National Drought Summary released for July 16, 2024, remnants of Beryl made their way up into the Midwest, bringing with them significant precipitation from east Texas all the way into Michigan. Significant precipitation along the eastern seaboard from New Jersey into the Carolinas was welcomed, but much of the rest of the country was quite dry with only pockets of light precipitation. The warmest temperatures were over the West, with departures of 3-6 degrees (°F) above normal widespread, and from Washington to California, with departures 9-12 degrees (°F) above normal.
However, climate change increases crop water demand: climate change has been known to compound California’s drought conditions, but a new study shows it has also affected the water supply in other ways. Researchers from UC Merced and the UCLA Samueli School of Engineering have found that rising temperatures associated with global climate change are largely responsible for increased farming water demands in the San Joaquin Valley — the southern half of California’s Central Valley and the state’s largest agricultural region.
Published in PLOS Water, the joint study used existing data to estimate water demand for crops from 1980 to 2023 in the San Joaquin Valley. The researchers found a 4.4% increase in the area’s water deficit over the last 10 years compared to the previous three decades. The increase was about 500,000 acre-feet (616.7 million m3) per year from 2012–2023 — enough to fill Millerton Lake, one of California’s large reservoirs.
According to the researchers, more than half of the increase — what the team describes as an “invisible water surcharge” — was attributed to climate change and the study suggests the situation will continue to worsen amid fluctuations in the state’s water supply.
“Effectively a warmer atmosphere means plants are thirstier, which means crops of all kinds have to work harder and use more water to grow to their ideal harvesting levels,” said study co-author Alvar Escriva-Bou, a UCLA assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering.
To compensate for the lack of rain during the growing season in the San Joaquin Valley’s Mediterranean climate, irrigation is provided through a combination of surface and groundwater sources. There is increased reliance on groundwater pumping for agriculture when crop water demands are high and surface water supplies are limited by events such as droughts. Both conditions are often present in the region, which has been subject to an accelerating depletion of groundwater reserves over the past several decades. At the same time, climate variability, including sustained periods of droughts, has put further pressure on aquifers and the water they store.
China: “the crop is about seven to ten days early.”
Data provided by NOAA for Xinjiang show, for the period March to May 2024, a relatively normal situation in terms of precipitation and normal or slightly above normal (1-3°C) temperatures.
Brazil: a progressively drier and warmer season
Risk of Drought Impact on Agriculture, situation in Minas Gerais and Goiás States, from June 21 until June 30, 2024
According to the information received from Brazilian operators, climate issues as rain delayed the schedules of transplantation. The weather from mid-April favored the development of plants and the hope of having a good harvest. A factor of concern continues to be the whitefly due to the conditions of lack of cold in the areas of Goiás beyond the concern with the final of the harvest which traditionally already has higher temperatures.
Forecasts provided by the National Institute of Meteorology of Brazil suggest that the situation in terms of precipitation, normal in July in the three states producing processing tomatoes, could gradually deteriorate in the states of Goiás and Sao Paulo in August and more markedly in September; at the same time, relatively cool temperatures (between 17 and 22°C) in July should gradually rise from the state of Goiás towards that of Sao Paulo to reach levels above 27°C, including in Minas Gerais in September.
Forecasts (precipitation anomalies and average temperatures) provided by the National Institute of Meteorology of Brazil for the July-September period.
Some complementary data
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Risk of Drought Impact on Agriculture, global situation from June 21 until June 30, 2024
Sources: drought.emergency.copernicus.eu, joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu, NOAA, journals.plos.org, droughtmonitor.unl.edu, Tomato Br (Brazilian Association)
