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News

Climate change: tomatoes on the brink of an unprecedented migration

27/09/2024 - François-Xavier Branthôme - Lire en français

From Spain to the English Channel, tomatoes are on the verge of an unprecedented migration due to global warming. Field-grown tomatoes, mainly intended for processing, are the most exposed to climatic hazards. But in the medium term, all crops, whether tomatoes or other vegetables, will have to adapt, or even move to other regions.

Although tomatoes are mostly all red when they reach our plates, the summertime star is also afraid of sunburn. Whether local or imported from Morocco, Spain or Italy for fresh consumption, tomatoes adorn French shelves all year round, shamelessly defying the rules of the seasons. But with global warming, whether for raw consumption or for processing, tomatoes are becoming increasingly difficult to grow in southern Europe. In France, several studies suggest that we will have to adapt in order to continue producing this crop, in twenty, thirty or fifty years' time, like a number of other crops.

Tomatoes may be grown in fields or greenhouses, by small market gardeners or large producers, prepared in salads or sauces, but all are in one way or another vulnerable to the vagaries of increasingly chaotic weather as the climate becomes more and more unstable due to the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities.

Heatwaves and drought take southern Europe by storm
"Whatever the type of crop, tomatoes are supplied with water through irrigation," explains François Lecompte, Deputy Director of the Plants and Horticultural Cropping Systems laboratory at the French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and the Environment (Inrae). As a result, areas hit by repeated episodes of drought are the most vulnerable, depending on whether or not they can rely on the availability of water for irrigation. With regard to temperatures, "above 32-34°C, there are problems with fruit set [the transition from flower to fruit], risks of fruit scorch and apical necrosis", continues the scientist, who also cites exposure to new parasites or diseases, mentioning in addition that pollinators can be knocked out by the heat.

After the summer of 2022, which was marked by hot, dry conditions, the French production of tomatoes for the fresh market fell 3% against 2021 results, despite a 7% increase in cultivated area. "All production basins are affected, to varying degrees," detailed France Agrimer's annual report, which also pointed out that the warmer the weather, the more tomatoes the French eat. The following summer, southern Europe suffocated under the heat, from Greece to Spain. Production in these countries suffered to such an extent that by the summer of 2023, Spanish distributors were turning to Belgian producers to fill their shelves, explained the head of the Belgian cooperative BelOrta to Flemish media outlet VRT News. "Germany too has been buying more tomatoes from us because they could no longer source their produce from Spanish growers."

In Belgium, as in the Netherlands, all tomato production takes place in greenhouses. France has a mixed cultivation model. Most of the production is grown in greenhouses, for fresh tomato consumption, while the rest is grown in open fields, mainly for processing into sauces, canned tomatoes, pizzas and ready-meals. These field grown tomatoes are logically less protected from the vagaries of the weather.

Field tomatoes on the front line
"Summer is becoming progressively hostile to tomatoes in Spain and southern France. Conversely, the Channel coastal regions are acquiring significant potential,” wrote agro-climatologist Serge Zaka recently on X, author of a study on the evolution of the "seasonality" and the "biogeography" of field-grown tomatoes. A modelized projection for the years 2060-2090 shows that "the tomato's range will tend to spread northwards and disappear from the south, as Spain gradually becomes desertified."

For the time being, French growers are not experiencing "the repeated problems of access to water" observed in other Mediterranean regions, says Robert Giovinazzo, director of the Sonito, the French interbranch organization for processing tomato growers. He explained that three quarters of French production take place along the Rhône valley, between the Lyon region and the Camargue delta. "Our irrigation capacities are not comparable with a region like Andalusia. For us to run out of water, there would have to be no glaciers left in the Alps to feed the Rhône River." Nevertheless, the resource is under threat, as Alpine glaciers have lost 70% of their volume since 1850, and could even disappear by the end of this century, according to the IPCC's most pessimistic scenario.

Before experiencing an explosion of the number of usage conflicts along the river that feeds cities, factories, fields and nuclear power plants, field tomato growers are working "in France and elsewhere on irrigation systems that better manage water supply, such as drip irrigation, and on the possibility of developing photovoltaic systems," i.e. protecting crops with solar panels. Are they planning to move up the Rhone Valley in the future? "We're considering it. We're keeping a close eye on the issue, and we know it will have to be done one day, but we're not there yet", says the Sonito's director.

For the time being, the aim is to increase the volume of processing tomatoes grown in France, which is very modest compared with neighboring countries. France produces between 160,000 and 180,000 tonnes a year, compared with nearly 6 million tonnes in Italy and up to 3 million tonnes in Spain. "90% of tomatoes consumed in France come from abroad, including 85% from Italy and Spain," explains Robert Giovinazzo. Will France be able to compensate for the South's difficulties in the longer term? Could climate change, as Time magazine feared in 2023 while describing the potential collapse of California's gigantic production sector, "pose a threat to ketchup"? André Bernard, President of the Sonito and the Provence-Alpes-Côte-D'azur Chamber of Agriculture, is hoping to see an increase in the proportion of French tomatoes for processing consumed in France. With a strategy aimed at integrating field tomatoes with other crops, he mentioned an increase from the current 10% to 25% by 2030.

Some complementary data
Serge Zaka: CEO of AgroClimat2050 | PhD in agrometeorology | Vice-President & Stormchaser for Infoclimat | Conference / Speaker about #climate #agriculture #globalwarming; Contact: sergezaka@gmail.com.

"Seasonality: summer is becoming progressively hostile to tomatoes in Spain and southern France. Conversely, the Channel coastal regions are acquiring significant potential. The shoulder seasons are becoming much more interesting for tomato growing in Spain and southern France."
"Biogeography: the range of tomato crops is tending to spread northwards and disappear from the South with the gradual desertification of Spain."
This data is taken from a study carried out by AGROCLIMAT2050 and Serge Zaka. It can be adapted to other vegetable crops.

Week 33, growth potential of irrigated crops, 1970-2000

Week 33, growth potential of irrigated crops from 2070 to 2100

Source: francetvinfo.fr

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