The lastest indications are that there will be a total reduction of at least 5% of the size of the crop in China which would bring the size of the crop to a maximum of 10.45 million tonnes.
For the 2024 processing season, the total surface planted in China is about 1.5 million Mu (100.000 hectares) for an initial expected production of 11 million metric tonnes. This represented a 37% increase on the final volume processed in 2023 of 8 million tonnes.
The breakdown of the volume expected was distributed as follows:
• 6.6 million tonnes in northern Xinjiang
• 2.42 million tonnes in southern Xinjiang
• 1.91 million tonnes in Inner Mongolia
• 0.07 million tonnes in Gansu and Ningxia
A total of 106 factories are running this year, an increase of 6 compared to the 2023 crop, reaching a historic high. The daily processing capacity of the running factories is 280,000 tonnes of fresh tomatoes, an increase of 17% compared to 2023.
Driven by the factor of increasing area of processing tomatoes, the price of tomato raw materials is reduced by 20% compared to the 2023 crop. The average purchase price of raw materials in Chinese production areas is estimated at 76 USD/t this year, down from about 95 USD/t in 2023, which is still very much competitive compared to that of California and Europe, currently estimated at an average of respectively 124 and 141 (down from 152 and 159 in 2023).
Crop update as of 30 August
Searing heat waves and intermittent rainfalls both in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have accelerated the ripening of the tomatoes, leading to a concentration of the crop, and caused some rotting of tomatoes. Losses could amount to 30% in some parts of South Xinjiang, while in Inner Mongolia a high incidence of late blight was observed in some fields, with some total losses in some, especially in land managed by growers who do not have strong technical assistance from processors like COFCO for instance. Therefore, the average yield per mu of early crops has decreased and the total volume will probably be less than the average 125 t/h expected, especially as more intermittent rain was expected for the first two weeks of September in both of the main producing regions.
Tomato field in Inner Mongolia
Field affected by late blight in Inner Mongolia
A total reduction of at least 5% is expected at the time of writing, which would bring the size of the crop to a maximum of 10.45 million tonnes.
Export situation
The total export of bulk and repack tomato products (HS CODE 200290) was 1.24 million tonnes in 2023, an increase of 30% compared to 2022 (0.95 million tonnes).
From January to July 2024, the cumulative export of bulk and repack tomato products (HS CODE 200290) was 0.66 million tonnes, dropped by 6% comparing with the same period of 2023.
According to the export data of 2023, it is estimated that the export of bulk and repack tomato products (HS CODE 200290) will reach 1.2 million tonnes in 2024 and will be basically the same as 2023.
Consumption of Processing tomato product in China
From 2008 to 2014, tomato products were mainly used in Western style restaurants, and the annual consumption equivalent to bulk paste in China increased from 67,000 tonnes to 107,000 tonnes, with an average annual growth rate of 6%.
Since 2015, more and more factors have driven the rapid growth of the tomato product consumption market:
• First, a taste bud revolution of the hot-pot industry has driven the rapidly growth of tomato flavours in 2015.
• Second, instant noodle companies have turned to tomato flavours product of better nutritious and healthy in 2022.
• Third, the rapid development of ready-to-eat and snack food market has accelerated the growth of tomato processing industry in 2023.
Tomato products are rapidly expanding their application scenarios in fields such as hot-pot, fast food, ready-to-eat meals, Western cuisine, bakery, beverages, and others, driving rapid growth in local consumption. China’s increased production will prioritize meeting local consumption needs.
It is expected that the domestic consumption in 2024 will be about 235,000 tonnes equivalent to bulk paste, with an average annual growth rate of over 10%.
It is estimated than in China about 50 kg of fresh tomatoes and 700 g of processed tomatoes are consumed per capita and per year.
COFCO for instance, which represents 26% of the total volume processed in China with 8 factories in Xinjiang and 4 in inner Mongolia producing 330,000 tonnes of paste annually, is currently selling 40% of its production domestically and targets to reach 50% in 2025. One of the growth areas is the hotpot market which went from nil six years ago to 60,000 tonnes of paste this year, with specialised chains like Haidilao (https://www.haidilao.com) opening branches in China and abroad. Diced tomatoes also represented about 30 to 40,000 tonnes annually for the company with a rapid growth. The next market targeted for development by the company is sour tomato soup.
Tomato flavour Hotpot for home consumption and in specialised restaurants (here in a Haidilao branch)
Graphs: COFCO
Photos: COFCO, Sophie Colvine
