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News

Carbon price in the EU to be set at Euros 70-80/t in Q4

12/11/2024 - François-Xavier Branthôme

On November 1, 2024, the price fell below Euros 65/t. In 2026, the EUA price is expected to average Euros 92.48/t.

In Q4 2024, the price of carbon in the EU is expected to be in the range of Euros 70-80 per ton. This forecast is made by S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts. The financial information and analysis agency expects an increase in demand for carbon credits due to an increase in thermal power generation.

As of November 1, 2024, EU allowances were trading at Euros 64.33/t (USD 69.92/t) in CO2e equivalent, compared to the settlement price of Euros 66.97/t on October 25. The European carbon price declined over the week amid falling gas prices and weak demand.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect carbon prices in the EU to rise by 2027 as supply declines due to political measures. The average forecast for the carbon price in 2027 was Euros 111.14/t. This is the first time the survey participants were asked about this period.
At the same time, experts have hardly changed their forecasts for 2025 and 2026. In 2025, the EUA price is expected to average Euros 76.88/t, and in 2026 – Euros 92.48/t. This forecast is 0.2% and 1% higher, respectively, compared to the July forecast.

Source: ember-energy.org

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