After the impetus given to consumer demand by the Covid pandemic, the dynamics of trade are readjusting to a new normal.
Canned tomatoes (codes 200210): hesitant growth
After the impetus provided at the start of the Covid health crisis, overall exports of canned tomatoes (customs codes 200210) have held steady over the last four years at around 1.9 million tonnes. Over this period, the average annual rate of growth in the sector's foreign sales remained low, at around 0.16%, well below the 4% annual rate recorded between 2003/2004 and 2018/2019. With quantities absorbed of just over 1.92 million t in 2023/2024, overall activity in the canned tomato category was only up by around 26,000 t (1.3%) on the previous year, and by less than 30,000 t on the average for the previous three years.
Against this lacklustre backdrop, the predominance of Italian products remained the main feature of world trade in canned tomatoes in 2023/2024. Far ahead of Spain, in second place worldwide with 126,000 tonnes shipped abroad, the Italian canned tomatoes sector exported just over 1.4 million tonnes of finished products, three-quarters of the global total for the year. With almost 93,000 t exported, the United States ranks third worldwide, well ahead of Greece (51,000 t), Portugal (33,000 t) and Turkey (32,000 t) (see additional information at the end of this article).
Six regions accounted for almost 90% of the products shipped in 2023/2024. With 720,000 t imported, the Western EU remains the world's leading outlet for this category, ahead of non-EU Europe (340,000 t), North America (233,000 t), the Far East (155,000 t) and the Eastern EU (94,000 t). The eleven other regions accounted for 11% of total supply, or around 191,000 t.
All in all, the cumulative annual variations recorded for exports from the ten main countries operating in the sector were just below 7,000 tonnes. Given the sector's strong polarization around the Italian business, and the relatively low volumes produced by other sectors, it is worth noting that last year saw a revival in US business, up 17,800 t (+24%) on marketing year 2022/2023, thanks to good performances in two fast-growing markets: the Far East and Central America. Demand from Far Eastern markets for US canned tomatoes rose by over 19,000 t (+14%) last year, while purchases from Central American countries increased by 15,700 t (+59%).
The downturn in Western EU (-42,600 t) and non-EU European (-10,300 t) markets clearly impacted business in Portugal, down 20% (-8,300 t), in Spain (-5%, -6,800 t) and in Greece, down 9% (-5,000 t). Conversely, Turkish products progressed against the tide in these European markets, improving their results by around 30% (+7,300 t) compared to 2022/2023.
The slowdown in purchases in the Western EU and non-EU Europe naturally had the greatest impact on Italian foreign sales, which "gave up" a total of almost 49,000 t in these two regions. On the other hand, the performance of Italian canned tomatoes on the North American, Far and Middle Eastern, Australian-New Zealand and South African markets compensated for most of this slowdown. In the end, quantities mobilized for export by Italian companies fell by just 0.3% (-3,700 t).
The global diagram showing the distribution of world trade in canned tomatoes is presented in the additional information at the end of this article.
Ketchup & sauces (codes 210320): the category's momentum is faltering
After four years of growth driven by the effects of the Covid health crisis, the pace of growth in global exports of sauces and ketchup was slower in 2023/2024 than it was previous years. Last year's absorbed quantities (1.67 million t) were only 0.9% up on 2022/2023 (1.65 million t), but still almost 5% higher than the average for the previous three years (1.59 million t).
National tomato industries in countries other than those that have historically been first-stage processors are actively involved in this market for tomato products from remanufacturing operations. In the last marketing year, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Austria and the UK, to name but a few, accounted for almost a third of the global trade in sauces and ketchup in 2023/2024.
The United States maintained and strongly consolidated their position as the world's leading exporter of sauces and ketchup, with sales approaching 376,000 t, well ahead of the Netherlands, the other leader in this sector, whose foreign sales just exceeded 255,000 t this year. With 173,000 t exported, Italian products complete the top three, supplying almost half the world market for sauces. Spain maintained its market share at around 7% of global exports, ahead of a group of five countries that were almost equal last year : the performances of Belgium, Germany, Egypt, Portugal and Poland ranged from 69,000 t to 59,000 t and from 4.1% to 3.6% of the quantities traded in 2023/2024 worldwide, shares similar to those of the previous year. Chinese, Turkish and Costa Rican foreign sales of sauces for the year were each in the region of 30,000 t, ahead of those from Guatemala and Austria, which were close to 20,000 t last year.
The 2023/2024 marketing year was marked above all by significant reductions in demand in the Eurasian, EU (Western and Eastern), non-EU European and Middle Eastern markets, which account for a large proportion of Dutch, Italian and Portuguese outlets in the sauces category.
These slowdowns have had a major impact on Dutch trade, whose earnings in 2023/2024 were down by almost 67,000 t and almost 21% on the previous year. Portuguese products also bore the brunt of the downturn in Europe, with foreign sales down by nearly 17,000 t, or 22%. Italian and Polish exports were also affected by the drop in demand in Europe, while better results in North America and non-EU Europe benefited Italian products, which was not the case for sales of Polish products.
Conversely, US sauces and ketchup have significantly improved their presence in "nearby" markets (Canada, Central America, Far East) and increased their sales volume by almost 48,000 t of products and 15% compared to the 2022/2023 marketing year. Bucking regional trends in Europe, the Spanish sector increased its sales (+18,000 t, +17%), as did Belgium and Germany to a lesser extent.
As for Egypt, by increasing its annual activity by more than 13,000 t (+28%), the country consolidated its presence on the North American and Mediterranean African markets, and confirmed its pre-eminence on the East African market, which it supplies almost entirely. Last but not least, we should mention the progress made by Chinese products on the South American market, and by Turkish and Austrian sauces and ketchup in Europe.
Summary presentation of tomato sauce and ketchup exports in 2023/2024, for shipment volumes over 1,500 metric tonnes (t).
Some complementary data
Total value of tomato product exports, by country, in million USD.
Overview of canned tomato exports in 2023/2024, for trade volumes over 1,500 metric tonnes (t).
Distribution of global movements of canned tomatoes, from the 10 main exporting countries to the 17 importing regions.
Distribution of worldwide movements of sauces & ketchup, from the 14 major exporting countries to the 17 main importing regions.
Evolution of national performances over past five years for tomato sauces & ketchup exports.
Distribution of world trade in canned tomatoes (codes 200210) in 2023/2024.
Distribution of world trade in tomato & ketchup sauces (codes 200210) in 2023/2024.
Details of the 2023/2024 results for each of these countries are available on request from the TomatoNews team.
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Source: Trade Data Monitor
