The latest processing estimates compiled by the WPTC show a further decline in estimates for the 2018 crop year, down 1% from the mid-July situation and more than 7.5% from the final result of 2017: several national figures were downscaled due to late opening and adverse climate conditions, so that quantities to be processed this year are now estimated at 34.89 million metric tonnes.
AMITOM members in the EU
In Portugal, the extreme heatwave at the end of last week when temperatures suddenly went from 26°C to up to 45°C have caused damages to the tomatoes especially as humid conditions favoured disease development. The temperatures are now back to normal. It will take some time to evaluate the situation fully, but the forecast is now reduced from 1.25 million tonnes to 1.1 million tonnes (- 10 to 15%) from the 14,000 hectares planted. The first factory only opened on 8 August, the second on 10 August and most of the others were only opening on 17 August, when normally the harvest starts at the end of July. Less than 1% of the crop had been processed by 10 August and it is expected that only 25% will be by the end of August, so a very good September will be needed to achieve the revised forecast.
In Spain, the total forecast remains 2.6 million tonnes from the 30,500 hectares planted.
In Andalusia, the harvest started at the end of July and factories are now running at full capacity. The recent heatwave has had no reported detrimental effect, but it is speeding fruit maturation and now putting a lot of pressure on the factories to absorb all the tomatoes. The brix is higher than last year and yields are good.
In Extremadura, the first factories only opened on 7-10 August and have not yet reached full capacity with less than 10% of the expected volume processed to date. There will be a big concentration in ripening next week when the peak will be reached but no other effects of the heatwaves have been reported. Early yields are not good, but brix is higher than last year.
In the north, the harvest is just starting this week and full capacity will only be reached at the end of the month or early in September.
In France, the surface finally planted was finally close to 2,050 hectares, lower than the 2,120 hectares expected in the spring, so the total production should be reduced to between 150,000 to 165,000 tonnes depending on yield (75 to 80 t/ha average). About 30,000 tonnes had been processed at the end of last week (11 August), under 20% of the revised forecast. All factories are now working in the south-east and the south-west. There was a lot of rain between 9 and 13 August which disrupted the harvest slightly, but which could affect the quality of already ripe tomatoes in the fields.
In the North of Italy, it is estimated that as of 15 August about 900,000 tonnes had already been delivered, 33-35% of the total forecast which remains 2.45 million tonnes. Brix remains high at 4.94° on average but farm yields are 5 to 10% lower than contracted. The surface planted was 35,100 hectares (-5% from the 37,000 ha in 2017) and 37% of it has been harvested to date. The crop is early in the east (Ferrara, Veneto) and should finish by 10 September, but it is slightly late in the west. Some rains and hails have disrupted the harvest in the last few days especially in the Piacenza area and some factories have slowed down or closed on 15 August (“Ferragosto” holiday) but all should be back at full capacity by the end of the week.
In the Centre and South of Italy, 26,000 hectares were planted this year (8% less than in 2017). As of 14 August, about 25% of the expected volume had been processed. The harvest is about a week late, but factories are now at full capacity. Rains in the last couple of days have also slowed down the harvest and some factories closed for “Ferragosto”, when wash up of equipment is often also scheduled. Most factories are restarting today or tomorrow. Fruit quality and brix are quite good but farm yields are lower than expected. The expectations stay the same so the total forecast for Italy remains at 4.75 million tonnes but depending on a good yield in September.
In Greece, the weather so far in August has been quite good but the rains in June and July have finally caused more damages than initially expected, especially in Peloponnese (-30%) so the forecast is now reduced to 320,000 tonnes from the 4,200 hectares planted. To date, about 190,000 tonnes (60% of the forecast) has been processed and a peak is expected in the next two weeks. It is the earliest crop ever and the season should be only 50 days when normally it lasts between 60 and 70 days. Farm yields are low. Brix was also low (4.65) until now, but it has been increasing in the last few days (c. 4.8). The weather remains strange, with scattered rains.
In Hungary, the harvest started early on 6 August, when it normally starts around 10-15 August, and should finish at the end of September. To date, 29,000 tonnes have already been processed, 24% of the 120,000 tonnes forecast from 1,350 hectares planted. The weather has been quite good to date with no serious rains for the last two to three weeks. The peak will be reached next week.
Other AMITOM members
In Tunisia, 510,000 tonnes have already been processed as of 15 August and only 10 of the 26 factories remained open. It is estimated that 90% of the crop has already been harvested and the factories now source tomatoes from the Jendouba (North-west) region.
In Turkey, the situation remains difficult with a low production, poor quality and a high price of tomatoes on the open market. Final production will probably be lower than 1.3 million tonnes.
In Ukraine, the weather in the first half of August was ok with no rains, cool nights and relatively warm days. The quality of the early tomatoes was ok. The only concern was Brix which was well below 5 and estimated at 4.5°. All factories are working now. About 160,000 metric tonnes of fresh tomatoes have been processed to date which is a bit more than 20% of the program. The forecast is maintained at a level of 750,000 tonnes.
Other WPTC countries
In California, the estimate is to process 1,131,745 short tons (1,026,026 metric tonnes) for this week. At the end of this week (18 August) the industry will have processed approximately 5,264,960 short tons (4,775,420 metric tonnes). Overall field yields are doing very well to this point in the season. Solids continue to run below historical averages statewide. The overall quality of the crop continues to be good. (See also our article on situation as of 18 August and expected quantities)
In China, almost all the factories have now started processing and the weather conditions are good.
In Japan and South Africa, no changes are reported.
Other countries
The US Midwest has gotten off to a good start with the season. Fruit quality has been good and only a few rain interruptions have occurred. The crop size is as expected, and a good season is ahead of us at this time.
In Senegal, the 2018 crop is now over with only 52,895 tonnes processed from an earlier estimate of 80,000 tonnes. In 2017, 52,601 tonnes had been processed and 28,000 tonnes in 2016. The volume can be broken down as follows: Agroline (17,380 tonnes), Socas (21,246 tonnes) and Takamoul Food (14,089 tonnes).
Source: WPTC
