WPTC
, François-Xavier Branthôme
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According to the latest information gathered by AMITOM (16 August) and by WPTC (18 August), the campaign is slightly disrupted by the effects of heat waves. Within AMITOM, some countries (Italy, Turkey) have already revised their processing forecasts downward, but further reductions could still occur in the coming weeks. Conversely, some countries (Algeria, Tunisia, Russia) have raised their forecasts, so that industrial prospects stand at 16.4 million mT in AMITOM and 38.25 million mT at the global level.
These latter variations remain marginal compared to the initial forecasts and do not affect the adequacy between the most recent estimates of consumption and the quantities expected for this 2017 season.
AMITOM countries
EU countries:
France
The last factory opened on 16 August. The season is going well with good quality and yield both in the south-east and the south-west. The only small issue is the incidence of mites. The harvest is slightly ahead of normal with a little more than 30.000 tonnes processed at the end of last week (13 August).
Greece
The weather is now normal for the season and most factories are now at full capacity. About 145,000 tonnes, 37% of the forecast, have already been processed. Brix is now improved, and at normal levels.
Italy
In the north, official figures will be available Thursday but it is estimated that 35% of the harvest and 30% of the factories’ program had been achieved as of Sunday 13 August. Both farm yield and brix are lower than last year. The peak came a week earlier than last year and factories are now at full capacity. Production should drop in a couple of weeks with low quantities expected in September. Processing yield is lower than expected both for canned or diced due to soft fruits and for paste due to low brix. After the recent heatwave, the weather is now normal with temperatures of 32-33 °C during the day and 20°C at night so ripening will slow down in the next two weeks. For now, the forecast remains unchanged but there is a risk of reduction of the volume of the late crop due to the heatwaves.
In the south, the crop is also about a week earlier than in 2016 and about 40% of the program has already been processed. The heatwave at the beginning of August has increased production and factories are trying to process as much as possible and increasing the number of hours the factories are running daily (from one to 2 or 3 shifts). The temperatures are now back to normal. There is uncertainty on the yields of the September harvest which will probably be reduced due to the heatwaves.
The overall forecast is reviewed down to 4.8 million tonnes.
Spain
It is estimated that 35% of the contracts have been delivered to date. In Extremadura, the harvest started very early and reaching full capacity quickly. Now, however, factories are now running at about 70% of capacity as there is a gap in the crop due to tomatoes ripening very slowly. This is partly due to a large difference in temperatures between the day (39°C) and the night (a cold 16°C) during the last 7 to 10 days. Yield and brix are lower than expected and there is a lot of green tomatoes. There are big uncertainties over the rest of the crop. Although the forecast is maintained for now at 3.2 million tonnes, it will probably be lowered at the next update.
Portugal
As we reported in the last conference call, the impact of the very hot conditions during peak flowering in June is being felt and harvest yields are lower than usual. Conditions continue to be extremely dry as there has been little or no rain since November 2016 and although water supplies for irrigation are quite adequate, the “pressure” of insects on the crop is significant with whitefly, thrips and russet spider mites causing significant defoliation in some fields.
We maintain our last forecast for the moment but as the situation becomes clearer over the next week, it is probable that we may have to reduce it further.
Outside the EU:
Algeria
Articles in the press have reported that thousands of tonnes of tomatoes had been dumped in rivers due to the overproduction in the central region of Chlef. It is estimated that 1.076 ha were planted in the region this year, up from 600 ha in 2016 and that average yields are 85-90 t/ha. The only factory in the region cannot absorb all the tomatoes, leading to long queues of up to 48 h in front of the gates and some loads being dumped. In the Guelma region, were c. 4,000 ha are planted and the biggest factories are situated, issues with water availability could reduce production. In Algeria, the total volume to be processed in 2017 is estimated at 600,000 tonnes, most of it in the east of the country (Guelma, Skikda, El-Tarf and Annaba).
Russia
There is a typical summer August weather in the South of Russia, which is quite ok for tomatoes, although in some regions there is more rain than needed. The quality of tomatoes, and therefore, the products is good. Three new factories have started operating leading to an increase in the forecast for this year to up to 400,000 tonnes.
Tunisia
The total surface planted with tomatoes The processing season is nearly over with an estimation of 98% of the volume having been processed as of 15 August with 602,000 tonnes of which 587,000 tonnes into paste and 15,000 tonnes into canned tomatoes. Only 6 of the 26 factories are still running with a daily intake of 4,000 tonnes.
The total forecast is increased to 620,000 tonnes, of which 600,000 tonnes for the production of 92,000 tonnes of paste and 22,000 tonnes for the production of 13,000 tonnes of canned tomatoes.
Turkey
Field yields are generally lower than expected in the north and tending to decrease in the south after starting well. The brix levels are also slightly lower than last year. The total forecast is reviewed down from 2 million tonnes to 1.9 million tonnes.
Ukraine
The harvest is now at full speed with good yield and brix. Diseases and weeds pressure is as usual. More than 10% of the forecast has been processed to date and it is most likely that the forecast will be achieved.
Other WPTC countries
California
The estimate is to process 1,058,000 short tons (959,000 metric tonnes) for this week. At the end of this week (August 19) the industry will have processed approximately 4,979,764 short tons (4,516,645 metric tonnes). On August 29, USDA/NASS will release their latest estimate for this year’s crop. At this time, many believe that the crop will be down from the original estimate of 11.8 million short tons (10.7 million metric tonnes). It is becoming apparent that the crop will be closer to 11 million short tons (10 million metric tonnes) that 12 million short tons (10.9 million metric tonnes) at this point. This week the northern area is just approaching capacity and is finally getting into the full swing of harvest. As we get further into the season it will be able to better estimate the influence the heat has had on the remaining crop. Overall solids have been slightly below last year from their historical average for the state. Overall quality is currently average at this time.
Canada
Processing has started at some facilities while others are set to begin on August 22 and 23. It’s been dry with intermittent precipitation. Temperatures have been mild with cooler evenings. A lot of areas could use some rain but the tomato crop looks decent, with disease pressure being controlled. Processors remain confident they will achieve contract tonnage.
China
The total volume of tomatoes processed by August 13 was around 690,000 tonnes. The weather conditions have been good, except for light rain in south of Xinjiang last week. However, it is forecast to rain during August 16-21 in Xinjiang, with the temperatures expected to drop to 3-5°C. In inner Mongolia, the season is going well.
South Africa
The estimate remains 160,000 tonnes.
Other countries
Poland
Hailstorms last weekend caused some damages which are currently being estimated but it is expected that production will be lowered.
Senegal
According to the local press, for the 2016/2017 processing season, the volume produced in the delta and the Senegal river valley should reach 53,000 tonnes in 2017, the highest level of the last three years and up 70% from de 28,000 tonnes produced in 2016. The two companies, Socas and Takamoul Food, have already processed 35,000 tonnes out of a total program of 55,000 tonnes. Assistance from the government, banks and the inter-professional organisation have enabled a better scheduling of the production this year, although some delays in the availability of fertilisers and pesticides lead to some losses due to bacterial diseases and mites in late plantings.
