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News

China: 2016/2017 Trade Results

22/08/2017 - François-Xavier Branthôme - Architecture of Trade - Lire en français
10% drop in volume and 16% drop in turnover

On 30 June, the Chinese industry ended one of its worst marketing seasons of the past seven years: with "only" 855 800 tonnes of products exported between July 2016 and June 2017, the level of operations dropped 10% compared to the previous marketing year. During the 2015/2016 season, exports of Chinese products had exceeded 952 300 tonnes. This latest result is also 27% lower than the record result achieved in 2011/2012 (1.169 million metric tonnes exported).
 

Among the destination regions that have been most affected by this slowdown in operations, West Africa (309 000 mT in 2016/2017) has recorded the largest decrease of the year, with a drop of close on 62 000 mT (-17%) compared to the results of the previous marketing year (371 000 mT). Togo, Ghana and Benin also recorded major decreases, but a number of other countries of the region have also notably reduced their trade flows from China. Rather unexpectedly, official Chinese export statistics also state a clear increase in Nigerian purchases (from 54 000 mT in 2015/2016 to 64 000 mT in 2016/2017).
Several countries of the EU28 have also sharply reduced their imports of Chinese products, the first of which is Italy (73 000 mT in 2015/2016, but only 54 000 mT over the past marketing year, which amounts to a drop of 26%), Poland (from 14 000 mT to 7 000 mT), the Czech Republic (from 7 500 mT to 2 500 mT), Portugal, the United Kingdom, Romania... In the final count, Chinese exports to the European Union have dropped from close on 105 000 mT two years ago to less than 82 000 mT in 2016/2017, which is a decrease of approximately 22%. A few incidental increases have been recorded, including shipments to Germany, Lithuania and a few other countries of the EU, but they remain insufficient to compensate for the drop in the Chinese trade flow to the region as a whole.
The slowdown has also affected trade with the Emirates and countries of southern Africa, whose imports dropped respectively by approximately 15 000 mT (-39%) and 9 000 mT (-22%) over the past two marketing years.
Other countries have been hit by a decrease in imports from China, including Turkey, Iran, the Indian peninsula, East Africa and Russia, with an accumulated drop of 140 000 mT. This downward trend has been countered by a number of increases, only a few of which are of any significance. Total increases do not exceed 40 000 mT of products, with the main ones involving sales to countries of the Far East (Korea, Philippines), Saudi Arabia, Brazil...
 

This notable decrease in export volumes has been accompanied by a sharp drop in revenue, at least partly caused by a highly aggressive commercial approach in terms of prices. Concomitant drops in volumes and prices have led to a drastic reduction (-16%) of this year's turnover, which fell from USD 786 million in 2015/2016 to less than USD 660 million in 2016/2017. For information, the Chinese industry exported USD 995 million worth in 2014/2015.
 

Some complementary data
Compared evolution of volumes processed and exported (farm weight equivalent) by the Chinese industry.
 

Evolution of the average monthly price for Chinese tomato paste, after its highest level was reached in March 2014.
 

Chinese monthly exports (tariff codes 20029011, 20029019 and 20029090).
 



 
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