Slow and small harvest…
Week ending September 9th yielded 846,111 short tons (sT) (767,500 mT). Week ending September 16th is projected to be 788,000 sT (714,800 mT), which is 69,000 sT (62,600 mT) less than originally projected last week. As the harvest heads closer to the end and processors start shutting down in September and October, the weekly tonnage should start dropping off. In order to meet the 11.5 million sT (10.43 million mT) estimate put forth by the USDA in August, California industry would need to harvest at least 750,000 sT (680,000 mT) per week for the next three to four weeks (until week ending October 7th). Looking back over the last five years, this has not been done. The last week of over 700,000 sT (635,000 mT) typically falls on/around September 30th.
Of the 846,111 sT harvested during week ending September 9th, only 14,362 (13,028) were Organic. So far, a total of 376,805 Organic short tons (341,800 mT) have been harvested this season. The year to date harvested is somewhere between what was harvested in 2014 and 2015. If the harvest continues as was done in these years, California organic tomato harvest will probably be in the low 400,000 sT (363,000 m) for the 2017 crop year.
2017 tomato crop even smaller than anticipated
California tomato growers are bringing in an even smaller crop than they anticipated, which could mean long-term gain but short-term pain in terms of prices.
Contracted processing tomato production finally was about 11.5 million tons, which is lower (2.5%) than the May estimate and 8% below last year. This summer’s processing tomato crop will be even smaller than anticipated, according to the latest USDA report, and it seems that the final result is likely to be in the low 11 million sT (9.978 million mT) as weekly tonnage rapidly decreases now. “Farms could have difficulty even meeting the revised estimate”, said Bruce Rominger, a tomato grower and board chairman of the California Tomato Growers Association, in early September. “I think that report is still too optimistic,” Rominger said. “It’s going to be smaller than that.”
With its 11.5 million sT target, the industry was already girding for its lowest contracted production since 2006 as it tried to pare down stockpiles of canned tomatoes still in warehouses after record production in 2014 and 2015. A shorter crop could lead to higher prices as carryover supplies dwindle, but prices for this season were set in advance and won’t change. On the other hand, “prices to growers have fallen […] this year, and even with the May estimate, growers would have needed higher yields this summer to do more than break even,” Rominger explained. “It’s too early to tell how short the crop will be,” he said. “But it will certainly help to get rid of the heavy burden of inventory.”
Spring rains delayed planting for many growers, then several heat waves this summer shrank yields. The heat has caused the harvest in the Central Valley to be erratic, interrupting the smooth flow of tomatoes to the canneries, according to NASS.
Sources: PTAB, CapitalPress, WestConFoods
