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California 2020: Crop situation as of 3 Oct., projection to 10 Oct.

06/10/2020 - François-Xavier Branthôme - 2020 Season
For the fourteenth week of harvest (ending October 3) PTAB estimates that 674,009 metric tonnes (mT) (743,037 short tons (sT*)) were delivered. Provisional total (9,669,506 mT or 10,658,806 sT) is 3.5% lower than the average quantity processed during past three seasons at this time (10.02 million mT or 11.04 million sT). According to the PTAB, solids as of October 3 were about 0.08 higher than in the same period in 2019, averaging 5.22 versus 5.14 last year.
For week 15 (ending October 10), projection for California harvest is down again with an estimate of 398,890 mT (439,742 sT). If achieved, this would bring the provisional total up to 10,068,433 mT (or 11,098,548 sT). According to local sources, most processors will have stopped by October 10th making it difficult for the weeks ending 17 and 24 October to achieve over 300,000 short tons which is necessary to hit the USDA estimate of 11.4 million sT

The 2020 California Organic processing tomato deliveries for the week ending 26 September were 4,816 mT (5,309 sT) bringing the provisional total to 477,256 mT (or 526,085 sT). Processed quantities in week 13 make it the second largest week in the history of organic processing tomato in California, slightly higher than the 2018 level on the same date. At this time, organic quantities account for 5.3% of total harvested quantity. 
However with no organic carrying over going into the 2020 pack, this year’s pack will most likely just be enough to cover consumption and inventories and will remain tight going into 2021.

According to the figures available, the current harvest path is 349,800 mT (385,625 sT) behind the average of the quantities harvested at the same date (end of week 14) in the past three years. 
According to the latest 2020 NASS Report, contracted production for California processing tomatoes is forecast at 10.34 million metric tonnes (11.4 million short tons). Taking this change into consideration, quantities being harvested will bring the provisional processed total to more than 97% of the official target of the season.

* Note: 1 short ton = 0.90718474 metric tonne

Source: PTAB, WestConFoods
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