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California 2020: Crop situation as of 10 Oct., projection to 17 Oct.

13/10/2020 - François-Xavier Branthôme - 2020 Season
For the fifteenth week of harvest (ending October 10) PTAB estimates that 434,870 metric tonnes (mT) (479,407 short tons (sT*)) were delivered. Provisional total (10,112,023 mT or 11,146,597 sT) is 0.6% lower than the average quantity processed during past three seasons at this time (10.16 million mT or 11.21 million sT).
For week 16 (ending October 17), projection for California harvest continue to decline with an estimate of 118,389 mT (130,514 sT). If achieved, this would bring the provisional total up to 10,230,423 mT (or 11,277,111 sT).
Taking these latest figures into consideration, it seems increasingly unlikely that the Californian industry will reach the USDA estimate of 11.4 million sT.
According to the PTAB, solids as of October 10 were about 0.07 higher than in the same period in 2019, averaging 5.20 versus 5.13 last year.

There were no deliveries of organic processing tomatoes during the week ending October 3rd. Total organic harvest remained unchanged at 477,256 mT (or 526,085 sT), accounting for 5.3% of total harvested quantity. Local sources note that with no organic carrying over going into the 2020 pack, this year’s pack will most likely just be enough to cover consumption and inventories and will remain tight going into 2021.

According to the figures available, the current harvest path is 58,524 mT (64,518 sT) behind the average of the quantities harvested at the same date (end of week 15) in the past three years. 
Taking the latest figures into consideration, quantities being harvested will bring the provisional processed total close to 99% of the official target of the season.

* Note: 1 short ton = 0.90718474 metric tonne

Source: PTAB, WestConFoods
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